Yesterday, John Engler said he wished there was more analysis of how Biden's win in Michigan was fueled outside of Wayne County. He's absolutely correct, and I'm going to try to explain that in this thread. An important stat to know: Michigan has 83 counties. (1/6)
Biden improved on Clinton's percentage of the two-party vote in 68 of the 83. His best was going from 34% to 39% in Ottawa County and his worst was dropping from 38% to 37% in Lake County. In Wayne, he *dropped* from 69.33% to 69.30%. (2/6)
Obviously, not every county is the same size. Wayne had 861K votes this year while Oakland had 760K. On the other end, Keweenaw had 1,534 and Luce had 2,951. So I also measured Biden's gain by votes in each county, adjusted for the higher turnout. (3/6)
By the way, every county had a increase in the two-party vote of at least 13 percent. Many were up over 20%, so both candidates added votes in almost every county. That's why I'm adjusting for turnout by comparing Biden's vote percentage to Clinton's given the 2020 turnout. (4/6)
So which counties won Michigan for Biden? Probably not the ones you expect. His biggest impact came in Kent, just ahead of Ottawa. Oakland was third, ahead of Livingston and Grand Traverse. Macomb was sixth, then Kalamazoo, Berrien, Washtenaw, and Clinton. Wayne? 77th. (5/6)
Donald Trump didn't lose Michigan because of Wayne County. He ran as well there as he did in 2016, but he dropped off on the west side of the state and in the Detroit suburbs. That's the real story of Michigan 2020. (6/6)
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