Thread by @amonizfootball

THREAD: Manchester United 1-0 West Brom- United by the numbers

Firstly, Solskjaer deployed United in the usual 4-2-3-1. The shape was better than most previous games and a far cry from the Brighton/Spurs games. Still struggling to get as high up on the right as the left, but Martial’s positioning is more balanced than usual:

It was also more dominant overall. United comfortably outshot West Brom 17-7, with 7-2 shots on target. Single game xG has its limitations, but even without the penalty, Understat had United at 1.77 xG, almost 4 times more than WBA’s 0.44.

These metrics are heavily skewed in United’s favour, but not without caveats. Of United’s 17 shots, 6 were outside the box and 7/11 that were inside the box were from dead ball situations. This left United with 4 shots in the box from open play… the same amount as WBA.

One of the biggest tactical criticisms of United under Solskjaer has been the inability to show effective system-based creativity against low blocks. So, were there any notable patterns in United’s play on Saturday?

In terms of set-pieces, yes. I saw three clear systematic trends of varying effectiveness that created 9 shots:
- 1. Crosses in front of the first man before glancing headers/cutbacks

- 2. Creating space for Maguire- he had 2 good shots, upping his season tally to 13 (1st among defenders in the league according to FBRef)
- 3. Telles/Fernandes finding each other to shoot from distance- not effective, but perhaps forces opponents to mark them instead of others

But outside set-pieces (which do not make up a large proportion of the goals in football), United didn’t create much more than WBA. In fairness, from the 4 open play box shots for both sides, United’s were better. 2 were great chances that Martial/Rashford should’ve scored:

These chances stole many headlines and allowed people to force unwarranted dialogue about these two players again, but neither have shown any trend of finishing issues in their careers and Martial in particular is an elite finisher.

The actual Martial/Rashford dialogue is not that they missed these chances, but that these were their only chances the entire match. This goes back to the systematic issues United have had under Solskjaer (and post-Ferguson in general), but these two also share some of the blame.

In terms of what you’d expect from Anthony Martial, finishing aside, this was a decent performance. He held up the ball well, made 6 dribbles (most on the pitch and double any other United player), and won 2 fouls.

However, his ball hungriness leads him to vacate huge amounts of space behind and along the opposition back line, preventing him from stretching the defence and scoring basic goals. Solskjaer points this out every time Martial scores a boring/systematic goal.

Saturday’s game favoured those who believe Martial is better out wide. Once Cavani came on and had a movement clinic, Martial was picking up the ball with space AND players in front of him. He took over the match, creating multiple chances including the big Rashford miss:

Martial’s deployment on the left with Cavani up front provided a glimpse of what Solskjaer should play against low blocks. Rashford played on the right, and his ability to release naturally from his right foot opened his passing range more naturally in the later minutes.

Moving to midfield, I initially misjudged Bruno’s performance. It’s easy to get frustrated with his decision-making sometimes, but it’s partially because he’s often forcing the team to create out of nothing. Ultimately, he tends to succeed.

Fernandes was extremely effective on Saturday. 6 key passes, 13/15 long passes (1st and most accurate among midfielders), 10 passes into the final third (1st among midfielders), and 16/23 passes forward 10+ yards, an incredible 12/17 of which were in the opposition half.

Fred is quickly becoming as undroppable as Fernandes. He tends to seem erratic on the ball and his retention numbers aren’t as elite as his progressive numbers, but against West Brom, he was progressive enough and with very high accuracy:

The unusual selection in midfield was Nemanja Matic. If this was a tactical choice from Solskjaer, he deserves some praise for it; trading McTominay’s intensity and ball-winning volume for Matic’s line-breaking passing and in-game management is a good choice against a low block.

As shown, Matic had 110 touches and completed 90% of his 96 passes. But while he’s a better progressor than McTominay, he’s not particularly ambitious and creates next to nothing from deep. He also only had 3 defensive actions in the match and could not press with any intensity.

If only one United player touches the ball 110 times per match, it seems suboptimal for it to be Matic. United have two gifted passers of the ball, and at their best, either would transform the play against low blocks.

Two defensive midfielders felt slightly unnecessary anyways; West Brom created next to nothing in this match. United’s defence, as it has been under Solskjaer, was solid over the course of the match. Overall, there were only four slightly shaky moments:

- 1. One glancing header from a corner. Even then, Bartley wasn't facing goal.
- 2. The overturned penalty- ultimately probably not a penalty, but Fernandes shouldn't be diving in like that. Not a back four issue.

- 3. AWB caught ball-watching from a cross again. He positions himself fine to head the ball away, but this isn't the best way to defend the situation. Ball glances off Lindelof and WBA force a good save from de Gea:

- 4. Callum Robinson hit the crossbar from distance. I thought United overcommitted on first watch, but it's actually AWB making a good attacking play before a quick longball leaves Maguire and Lindelof to defend their entire half.

Many people argue that Maguire and Lindelof aren’t complementary centre-halves, but they both play out of the back as Solskjaer wants. Maguire’s passes , the long ones in particular, tend to show some of the clearest patterns in United’s buildup:

Finally, Alex Telles had a solid PL debut. 105 touches on the ball was the most after Matic, and there’s an obvious plan for him- he attempted 7 crosses in a single match. Shaw has averages 0.9 in the Premier League this season.

Shaw’s steadiness and comfort on the ball makes him very important to United, so even if Telles is more aesthetically pleasing and a better and more ambitious attacker, he will need to face a few more defensive/possession-based tests to prove he can take over the role.

Overall:
- 1. Fred and Fernandes were the best players on the pitch. Matic was a better choice than McTominay for this game
- 2. WBA offered little going forward and the defence deserves credit
- 3. United still struggled to create from open play, especially pre-Cavani

End of thread. Thanks for reading, and let me know what you thought of the match as well as feedback/questions!