If you read through this asking yourself the question "how many of the horrible errors people made over Labour antisemitism are being reproduced in this article?" it's really striking.
That's not really a knock on Wilby (still less a defence of any of the other figures to have gone "this is all exaggerated and think about the free speech issues"). Just interesting that it's often quite difficult, when you're not on the receiving end, to recognise that ...
... that something is actually bigotry, not just "views you disagree with". To a large extent it depends on leaders in the affected community having someone in the mainstream media who will answer their calls, which is why, I think people are so shocked that ...
...the trans community managed it; it's a little bit of generation shock to realise that there are now lots of media professionals who grew up with trans friends and regard slurs against them as serious offences.
(envoi: in a lot of cases, Wilby is not wholly wrong! The online trans rights community often behaves horribly! Sometimes it massively overstates things and uses words like "harm" extremely irresponsibly! That plus two quid will get you expelled from the PLP.)

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More from @dsquareddigest

25 Nov
to expand on this. What I dislike is not so much the mechanics of how QE works - which, to be frank, the man in the street is correct not to care about, and where experts are hardly in consensus - as the lack of the concept of "a policy variable". By which I mean ...
... if the UK was borrowing short term in USD (or indeed, when Greece was doing so in EUR), it would indeed be at very great risk of sudden movements in short term interest rates. But the UK, in GBP, is borrowing in a currency where the interest rate is a policy variable.
Peston's article reads as if he's saying that Mervyn King set a booby-trap - that because of QE, there's a danger that we won't be able to finance the COVID stimulus. The seeming mechanism is - COVID reduces capacity - output rises - inflation - higher funding cost - AAARGH! ...
Read 9 tweets
5 Jun
Kind of a worrying feeling that at present I am on track to make more money out of The Share Prices this month than all of my businesses put together. Very tentative thread...
... I think the @EpsilonTheory bloke is right to compare this to the Bear Stearns bounce. But history rhymes, it doesn't repeat itself. Sometimes it doesn't even rhyme, it just shares consonant sounds like traditional Welsh verse ...
... in this case, the cynghanedd is the theme of "massive policy mistakes". We had the Bear Bounce because the market presumed that systemic risk was being correctly underwritten, followed by the Lehman plunge when it wasn't. This time ...
Read 7 tweets
21 Apr
OK I disagree with this pretty fundamentally. It's not a "pass" or "going easy". Here's a THRED on backtesting exceptions ....
The "backtesting exception" is a euphemism for "the VaR model didn't work", as they often don't. You have to record one every time you get (broadly) a movement in the "hypothetical P&L" on any given day which is greater than the 99% 1-day VaR. Whoa hang on ...
"hypothetical P&L" basically means, oversimplifying wildly, "the movement in the daily valuation of the trading book". It differs from "actual P&L" because you're always *trading* that book, so your actual prices achieved might be different from the daily valuations....
Read 15 tweets
13 Apr
I can do you a quick inquiry if you like, from general knowledge and generic reasoning ... (1/4)
*Who leaked it*?

One of the dozens of people who had a copy and was angry that it was about to be swept under the rug.
*Is all the stuff about shockingly poor practices in the compliance unit true*?

Of course it is, how do you think you get such bad results?
Read 9 tweets
19 Mar
A point I think I should have 'splained earlier; coronavirus isn't normal economic recession. In this case we *want* much lower consumption for a short period. We want to make sure we can bring it back in as intact a state as possible when we want consumption back.
That means the normal policy - concentrate your support on people with lower incomes because they have higher marginal propensity to consume - isn't right for this situation.
What we want to preserve is *employment*, because there is huge deadweight loss when a worker is fired or a company is wound up. Usually in a Keynesian recession you do that by demand management. But we don't want demand to go up - we want people to stay at home!
Read 6 tweets
12 Mar
still don't think modelling is possible based on the data we have but a few comments on forecasting in general

1. Forecasting's usually a game of second derivatives - the change in the rate of change. Is the number of new cases speeding up or slowing down? When will that change?
2. Following on from that, death happens at the end of an illness not the beginning. It's a noisy filter at best because it's affected by age structure and healthcare system stress, but even adjusting for those, deaths are a lagging indicator.
3. We are still in the early stages so IMO it still makes sense to ignore cures and think about gross new cases rather than net. Similarly, dividing things by populations is probably throwing information away; the infected population is small compared to the uninfected
Read 4 tweets

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