"For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it’s still not yet two o’clock on that July afternoon in 1863
the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill
waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it’s all in the balance, it hasn’t happened yet, it hasn’t even begun yet, it not only hasn’t begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and
Kemper and Armistead and Wilcox look grave yet it’s going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn’t need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time. Maybe this time with all this much to lose than all this much to gain:
Pennsylvania, Maryland, the world, the golden dome of Washington itself to crown with desperate and unbelievable victory the desperate gamble, the cast made two years ago." - William Faulkner
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The FBI reported today that they will not be releasing quarterly crime estimates for any quarter of 2021 because not enough agencies reported data to the FBI.
There is an artificial cap requiring 60% of agencies to report in a given quarter. Only 52.5% of agencies (9,881 of 18,818) reported data for Q4 2021. That's up only 780 agencies relative to Q3 2021 and down 3,093 agencies relative to Q4 2020.
The FBI required all agencies to begin reporting data via NIBRS last year (I wrote about it nytimes.com/2021/03/16/ups…). This is a pretty stark warning that our understanding of crime in 2021 will be substantially hampered by far fewer agencies reporting than have in previous years.
Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November). Murder up in 51 of 57, 37 of 58 agencies reporting murder up more than 30%.
Big city trends tend to overstate national trends, so a 5% increase in murder in big cities tends to mean a 2-3% increase nationally. But this year we have no idea what will happen with the national figure.
The largest national % increase ever reported (data since 1960) was 12.7% in 1968 and the largest # increase was 1,938 in 1990. A 15% increase this year (and I think it'll be much larger) would mean 2,400 more murders & be the worst one year increase in murder ever recorded.
Louisiana reported 1,023 additional cases today with 7.3% of tests (PCR only) positive.
Orleans Parish reported 64 additional cases today with 3.6% of tests positive.
May be more evidence of a plateau coming though still too early to tell for sure.
Decent evidence of a plateau developing a little more than a week ago in the cases by date of test data.
If we have a bad backlog right now that might be skewing things though.
Anyhow, the totality of data suggests we are likely at a plateau right now though obviously there's no guarantee that we don't either stay there or go down.
Louisiana reported 2,120 additional cases today with 6.4% of tests positive (PCR only).
Orleans Parish reported 134 additional cases today with 1.5% of tests positive.
Definite plateau in Orleans PCR testing, maybe starting to see it statewide but too early to say for sure.
Orleans Parish reported 2 new deaths after going 11 straight days without a new death.
Deaths statewide are starting to surge again.
The number of people in the hospital jumped by 40 today. Not good obviously but it's "only" up 20% week on week suggesting new hospitalizations are beginning to slow.