Thread by @HughCasswell

So which tier of covid restrictions is Nottinghamshire likely to be in? A thread:

First thing to say is the PM told the Commons on Monday tiers will be decided on a regional basis, rather than at district level, so we expect Nottinghamshire to be treated as one

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Things considered when deciding tiers are:
-Infection rates
-Ages of those getting infected
-Rate of change
-% of tests coming back positive
-Hospital pressure

So let’s go through each one in turn…

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Infection rates:

The simplest indicator of how an area is doing but considered a bit of a blunt instrument.

Here are the rates back at the end of October when it was confirmed all of Nottinghamshire was going into tier 3:

https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1321492285255725056

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And the most recent data:

https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1331662795247595521

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So now it's the north Notts areas dragging the average up - the exact opposite of what was true at the start of October...but given the "regional approach" and taking an average of all the rates above:

Oct 28th: 353
Today: 224

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So clearly things have improved, but is it enough? I'm told a very rough rule of thumb for the boundary between tiers 2 & 3 is a case rate of 200 per 100k...so maybe Nottinghamshire isn't quite there yet

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Ages of those getting infected:

There's more concern if more older people are getting infected. You can see in these two graphs for October and November how infections have moved up the age ranges - the wrong direction of travel

Source: Nottinghamshire LRF dashboard

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Rate of change:

Doesn't seem to have been quantified what "rate of change" the government is looking for but if we use the averages above, it's taken a month for the average case rate to drop from 353 to 224. Fast enough? I'm not sure

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% of tests coming back positive:

The one I'm least sure about. The government publishes data on the total tests carried out each day, but (unless I've missed it) not with the level of granularity that would allow us to work out what % of tests in Notts are positive

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Hospital pressure:

I'm told this is the one that's really critical. @NHSNottsCCG publishes figures each Friday, latest here:

https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1329818425229791234

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CCG says still 50% more people in Notts hospitals than at peak of the first wave. Seems this is a residual effect of the huge spike in cases in Oct because there tends to be a lag from infection to hospitalisation, but no one wants to add to that pressure

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So overall coronavirus is less prevalent in Nottinghamshire now than at the start of lockdown, but you have to remember that's coming down from an astronomically high point. Combined with the hospital pressure, it might not be enough to spare us from tier 3 BUT...

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It all gets reviewed after 14 days, and while Nottinghamshire looks set to go IN to a particular tier as a whole county, that doesn't mean different districts couldn't come OUT individually if their rates continue to fall

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So to sum up...tier 1 seems inconceivable. Various local politicians have expressed their hope it could be tier 2...but it might just be hope.

One source tells me they'd be "amazed if we're not tier 3"

We'll find out for definite tomorrow!

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