Great thread by Adam as ever on transmission risk. I want to highlight what we collectively do around at risk people, mainly people >60 old, in particular >70, obese, male over Christmas.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1331651292838588416
Adding to transmission levels overall will be bad news but can be buffered elsewhere in the system. Eg regions in Tier 2 might move up to Tier 3. But infections to at risk people run a serious chance of irreversible impact of hospitalisation and very possibly death
(base line numbers >70 is around ~5% chance of dieing if infected; this goes up if you are overweight and if you are male. It is a serious, appreciable chance).
So - these are grandparents in effect, and I think we'd be better of with them "visiting on one specific day" over Christmas, ideally minimising overnights. Winter walks outside, all wrapped up, thermos of hot chocolate and choccy biccies will be good.
A friend of mine reminded me "I can't help thinking of the parallel of the time between the signing of the Armistice in WW1 at 05:45 and it coming into effect at 11:00 on 11 November 1918 during which time there were 10,944 casualties of whom 2,738 died."
The distance from Christmas to vaccination may not be 5 hours 15 mins, but for these at risk groups it will be very short. Loving our parents (or grandparents) means helping them get to that point.
Christmas 2021 will be a celebration; Transpose Christmas to Epiphany 2021 or mid-summer as the Scandis do; skype, hangout and zoom and send love.
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