Sad that we have come to this point. We are here because throughout this mess political leaders, health authorities, and the general public were irresponsible, stubborn, & impatient. Will we learn from this that "fits and starts" is the worst possible policy?
We did not invoke the precautionary principle early on this pandemic, deciding (without any scientific evidence) that only three of four transmission routes were relevant and downplaying transmission by aerosol particles.
Across the board, there was a lack of unified effort to starve this virus of its hosts & manage it. We did not need major investments. What needed to be done was obvious to many scientists from the start, but lacked acceptance by leaders, unified messaging, & public commitment.
The steps in layered dose & risk reduction are not rocket science. We could have done it BEFORE day 1, far fewer lives would have been lost or destroyed, children could have been in school, less jobs lost, and perhaps gyms like this one would not have been on brink of closure.
We needed will and determination. We got neither.
Now we are where we are, dependent as a nation on vaccines to save lives, businesses, and jobs. Will we learn to do this better the next time? Sadly, the answer is not clear to me.
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1/ I agree with @Don_Milton. It is important to distinguish between near- and far-field aerosol particles. In the near field (close contact) there is potential for much higher concentration of aerosol particles in the breathing zone of a receptor.
2/ The actual concentration depends on extent of emissions from infector, body positioning of infector and receptor, mixing conditions between infector and receptor (which depends on a number of other factors), and DISTANCE between infector and receptor.
3/ Aerosol particles do not vanish beyond the near field. They exist in the far field and will accumulate until an approximate steady-state is achieved (more on this later) as long as the infector(s) stay in the space.
1/ Most important thing at the moment is to starve this virus of hosts. Need political leaders, business owners, bldg managers, school officials & public all acting in concert to substantially reduce inhaled dose of virus-laden aerosol particles in indoor near- & far-fields.
2/ We will find ourselves w/ similar challenges again. So, we also need to reflect on all of the things done wrong to get us into this horrific mess, learn from mistakes, and be prepared to do the right things next time.
3/ There have been unconscionable failures of leadership that fueled this mess. But there have also been many other failures, from general public to academia, media to businesses, medical profession to much more.
1/ Reviewing data from past school study in Texas. On average ventilation rates are considerably higher in portable than in permanent classrooms, but with much greater variability.
2/ Portables are much more connected to outdoor environment - greater infiltration and opportunity for natural ventilation (open door/windows).
3/ But interestingly, portables (on average) appear to have higher rebreathed fraction of air (fraction of inhaled air that was exhaled by others in the indoor space) than permanent classrooms due to higher density (occupants per classroom volume).
1/ As a senior in high school I ran for Mayor of @TorranceCA, Calif, against a sitting Councilmember (James Armstrong). At the time I believe I was the youngest candidate to ever run (& lose!) in California. Gr8 experience and learned a new meaning for the term "landslide".
2/ I conceded immediately after the votes were counted. Within a couple of days my "opponent" and I had lunch together at the Good Earth in the Del Amo Mall. We kept in touch over the years until Jim's passing & would occasionally discuss our campaign and debates.
3/ We had several public debates, including one on the radio that I wish I could find. To this day, I am haunted by a question regarding my views on binding arbitration.
1/ As inferno of infection kills & drives nation to the abyss, many governors starting to take stricter action. Many waited too long, frozen in headlights, or in denial. Need strong leadership (courage) to reduce inhalation dose (& so cases & deaths). Just Do It!
2/ "Fits & starts" has been a HORRIBLE approach & only added to suffering, deaths, economic crisis, lost jobs, detriment to education of children. The correct approach was all-out assault on reducing inhalation dose to "starve" virus of hosts and then manage it like others did.
3/ Much more difficult to do this now because of lack of leadership & long delay in listening to experts related to transmission by and control of aerosol particles that are ride share for virus. Need an all-out assault to reduce inhalation dose now to save lives. Let's do it!
1/ Much of US is on fire w/ COVID-19 infection & the flames are only getting hotter. Politicians & the general public who continue to be cavalier about, or blind to, this inferno are adding fuel to fire. People are burning. People are dying.1st responders are exhausted & dying.
2/ We know what to do. Wear a mask in indoor spaces outside of own home w/ immediate family, avoid non-essential indoor spaces, limit time in indoor spaces where you must go, physically distance. Just do it!
3/ Business or building owners/building managers: Require masks, design for physical distancing, reduce density, increase ventilation, improve filtration and/or employ UV. Just do it!