Thread by @JerusalemDemsas

I spent a couple of weeks talking with policy experts, renters, landlords, and lawyers about the looming expiration date for the CDC's eviction moratorium.

It's worse than you think, and it's all utterly avoidable. Thread.

The Aspen Institute has estimated up to 40 million renters are at risk of eviction over the next several months. The only thing currently holding back the tide is the CDC's order and a patchwork of state and local eviction moratoriums.

But eventually moratoriums have to end. And Moody's Analytics' chief economist Mark Zandi has estimated renters could owe up to $70 billion by year's end.

So uh, who's left holding the bag?

vox.com/21569601/evict…

First things first, every single person I talked to -- landlords, renters, tenants advocates, policy experts, legal aid lawyers -- was in unison that rental assistance is the only feasible way to actually avert catastrophe here.

vox.com/21569601/evict…

Eviction moratoriums on public health grounds are a useful tool to keep people in their homes -- but you know what could also keep people in their homes and avert a financial emergency?

Giving people money so they can pay their rent.

vox.com/21569601/evict…

Even with eviction moratoriums, the incentive to kick people out of their homes for nonpayment doesn't just disappear.

Eviction is costly, so if you have a good tenant who is working with you, most landlords would try to avoid kicking people out of their homes.

But some are using every tool they can to evict tenants and no eviction moratorium, no matter how strongly written, can close every loophole.

marketwatch.com/story/can-my-l…

More commonly, when tenants are given any notice to evict, they frequently leave their homes even if they don't have to.

The cost of eviction is so high on their future ability to rent that they leave prematurely.

The CDC made this all more difficult when it issued an FAQ telling landlords they could start the eviction process even if they couldn't formally kick people out of their homes.

It also claimed that landlords didn't need to make renters aware of their rights.

An important aspect of this is that most affordable housing in the US is owned by individual investors or "mom-and-pop" landlords.

**41% of rental housing units are owned by mom-and-pop landlords**

Renters of small properties tend to be poorer and tend to work in industries most harmed by Covid-19 (food service, retail, construction…)

And the landlords they rent from are some of the least capable of absorbing the loss of income from unpaid rent.

Even with eviction moratoriums in place, mom-and-pop landlords have mortgages of their own and are required to maintain their properties -- which means operating costs continue even as rent payments decline.

Post-2008, we saw a lot of our affordable housing stock get bought up by private equity & flipped to serve a higher-income population. A lot of experts are worried that this could happen again if mom-and-pop landlords are forced to sell their properties.

theatlantic.com/technology/arc…

This isn't new @dianeyentel emphasized to me: "for nine months this tsunami on the horizon has been completely predictable and entirely preventable…[the problem] is the lack of political will."

There are some novel ways that the federal government and states could act to stave off this crisis.

Aspen's @KLucasMcKay said that TANF and other community development funds could be re-allocated for rental assistance but the fed. gov. needs to provide technical assistance.

McKay also pointed to an interesting program in Michigan where the state is bargaining directly with landlords to pay off back-rent.

freep.com/story/news/loc…

But at the end of the day, rental assistance is the only real solution. Congress can do it and the problem isn't even that expensive -- $100 billion is what many are pushing for.

$100 billion in exchange for keeping tens of millions of Americans housed during a global pandemic and shoring up our already dwindling housing stock?

Congress needs to take that deal.

vox.com/21569601/evict…

Linked it a few times but here's the full article. Thanks to all the renters, policy experts, legal aid lawyers, folks on the brink of homelessness, and landlords who spoke to me for this.

vox.com/21569601/evict…

Special thanks to @FurmanCenterNYU's Matthew Murphy and Charlie McNally, @ShamusRoller, @EricTars, @dianeyentel, and @KLucasMcKay for talking with me for this piece. Anyone interested in following the eviction crisis and what's happening to renters should follow their work!

And @marykcunningham at @urbaninstitute!