Thread by @tparsi

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, one of Iran's most important nuclear officials, has been assassinated in Tehran. This is what we know /THREAD/:

1. Israel has assassinated numerous Iranian nuclear scientists in the past but have never been able to get to the highly protected Fakhrizadeh.
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2. Some Iranian reports claim it was a suicide attack, but the bullet holes in Fakhrizadeh’s car cast some doubt on that.

3. If it was a suicide bomb, then that reduces the likelihood of Israeli operatives carrying out the attack.

4. Israel has, however, used operatives from the Iranian terrorist organization the MEK in the past to conduct attacks in Iran. The MEK is the group that introduced suicide assassinations to Iran.

opiniojuris.org/2012/02/11/nbc…

5. Israel is a prime suspect because of a few factors:
- It has the expertise and capacity.
- It has done it before.
- It has the motivation.

6. Let’s unpack the last point: Conducting attacks in Iran has few down-sides for Israel right now. Either Iran lashes out and sparks a broader conflict that sucks in the US, bringing about a US-Iran confrontation that Netanyahu long has sought.

7. If Iran sits tight and waits out the Trump presidency, Israel will not have lost much as Trump clearly has either given Israel the green light to attack Iran or at a minimum refuses to impose a cost on Israel for dragging the US to the brink of war with Iran.

8. Either way, the assassination (and other likely future attacks) will likely harden Iran’s position and complicate - if not hinder - the Biden team’s attempts to revive diplomacy. That serves Netanyahu’s interest as well.

9. Indeed, Tehran’s openness to post-JCPOA negotiations on missiles and other matters will likely diminish if Israel engages in assassinations in Iran or attacks Iranian targets elsewhere - such as in Syria.

10. In fact, the Obama administration CONDEMNED Israel’s earlier assassinations precisely because it knew the murders wouldn’t set back Iran’s nuclear program - their only intent and impact would be to set back diplomacy. See amazon.com/Losing-Enemy-O…

11. We are now in a worse situation for the next +50 days. The main impact of attacks of this kind will NOT be to set back Iran’s program but to render diplomacy for Biden more difficult. Trump will not push back against these attacks - he may even be encouraging and aiding them.

12. Be prepared for a very bumpy ride till Biden’s inauguration. And if it turns out that Israel was behind the assassination, have no illusions about Netanyahu’s desire to drag the US into another endless war in the Middle East…