The less aggressive usually draw the moderate/severe line based on need for oxygen support. However, this labels most hospital cases severe, losing granularity. Some add a 'critical' category to compensate, but this is an overloaded term.
In discussions here, I draw the moderate/severe line around onset of hypoxemia on high-flow oxygen, often onset of pulmonary microthrombosis and soon rising D-dimer, with a high risk of ARDS and DAD but not quite there yet. This matches my reading of the literature.
@poiThePoi@GephenS@youyanggu@mattparlmer No. But keep in mind 30% is the highest reported figure. Vast majority of counties are lower. So it could make sense roughly given that.
At this point they are just letting it rip. Not enough people cared soon enough with enough coordination.
@poiThePoi@GephenS@youyanggu@mattparlmer Although tbf the average visually at least does appear to be about 20% as you assumed. I agree with that reading of the map colors.
Either something is off, or... the delayed impact from positive test to hospitalization is going to go entirely unmanaged. They are full already.
@poiThePoi@GephenS@youyanggu@mattparlmer If this model is accurate, which it may indeed be, then Iowa CFR is likely to increase materially within the next 2 weeks as staffing ratios fall and admission refusals cut deeper into the scale of severity in spite of overflow capacity.
Comparative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 binding to ACE2 across hundreds of mammalian species reveals the strongest affinity is for *human and primate* ACE2.
Moreover, there is little to no selection pressure toward hACE2 by the virus. It *already worked*.
This is exactly as expected if the viral RBD was chosen from a set of sampled strains based on its affinity for human ACE2.
It is *not* expected for natural origin. That should produce selection toward hACE2 from bat ACE2. Instead, we actually see selection *toward bat ACE2*.