In 2014, I was on a 'task force' convened by Guinea's President to forge a nat'l Ebola response

Cases were spiking, it was a polarizing election year &, though many efforts were happening, there was no overall strategy or unified response

Here's how we set up the response

1/15
The first step was to establish a clear chain-of-command leadership structure under the National Ebola Coordination Cell with Dr Sakoba Keita as its head

All partners (eg, WHO, MSF, other ministries) & all response activities had to go through the Cell

2/15
We then created an overarching national strategy that included all interventions (eg, testing, contact tracing)

This wasn't just a laundry list of things that could help but aimed to spell out the combo of measures needed to actually reach zero within a defined timeframe

3/15
Many aspects & especially timelines had to be periodically updated based on the trajectory of the epidemic but this strategy created an overarching framework for how & where to focus efforts with ending the epidemic as the goal

4/15
We then translated this national strategy into location-specific & timebound operational 'micro-plans' with 4Ws--who will do what where by when?--with the idea that each organization was assigned to what they uniquely did best (eg MSF led treatment, WHO/CDC contact tracing)

5/15
With that, we had an overarching nat'l response but the most important work was implementation at the local level. The 'ground game' defined whether or not we'd succeed

A similar structure was set up in each district to adapt strategies & coordinate day-to-day execution

6/15
Once main response structures & activities were in place, we investigated new cases to try to understand where gaps still remained or lapses in execution were occurring & used that info to improve execution

7/15

A major challenge we saw was misinformation & rational mistrust from communities who had for years been neglected or exploited (nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…)

To overcome this, we implemented an intensive & systematic community engagement strategy led by Cheikh Niang & others

8/15
Teams of anthropologists went village-by-village, neighborhood-by-neighborhood to listen to communities, understand their concerns & feed that back into how we did things, such as safe burials of those who had died from Ebola

9/15
This process--though painstaking--was essential & built trust over time

We also tried to engage politicians from both leading parties & empower religious and traditional leaders to push messages to their communities

10/15
In summary, we:
(1) set up unified leadership & coordination structure
(2) created a coherent national strategy
(3) translated overarching strategies into operational plans
(4) built up local level capacity & organization to execute

11/15
(5) used data to refine our approaches & implementation
(6) systematically & deliberately engaged & built trust with communities

All of this didn't happen seamlessly or even smoothly. It involved lots of local, national & organizational headbutting, politics & sheer grind

12/15
But many of the steps mirror with what we need to do now in the US

Broadly, we know the strategies to pursue but have to weave them into a coherent overall strategy ideally spearheaded by CDC

13/15
We then need to convert that into local action informed by local data ideally by adequately supported & funded state & local health departments

We also need to find a way to bridge political, ideological etc divides & get groups resistant to control efforts on board

14/15
All of this will be important to respond to the unprecedented 'supersurge' we're likely about to face, save lives until vaccines are ready & make sure they get deployed as efficiently as possible once they are

15/15

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More from @RanuDhillon

5 Oct
(1/3) The 3 greatest health challenges of this century - pandemics, non-communicable diseases, health effects of climate change - will require

(1) health systems premised on primary care that integrate population health

(2) stronger mechanisms for global coordination & action
(2/3) #1 can be achieved by merging best practices that thus far happen in isolation into integrated systems that leverage technological- connectivity, AI, automation- tools to orchestrate/facilitate high-quality replicable execution at scale

(More soon @OptimizeHealth_)
(3/3) #2 is less of a technical & logistical challenge than a human, social & political one & therefore much more complicated to find a clear path towards achieving but achieve it we must
Read 4 tweets
5 Oct
(1/5) To put Trump being started on dexamethasone in perspective, we do it for patients when they become hypoxic

Some patients I've had are on remdesivir/dexa like Trump is now & only require a touch of oxygen (eg, 2L) for a day or two & then come off it.
(2/5) Even when on oxygen, they may look, feel, talk etc. like they're fine & you wouldn't know they were hypoxic unless you took off the oxygen & saw their O2 saturation
(3/5)Others on remdesivir/dexa end up as sick as anyone can be including on a ventilator, paralytics, etc & either pass away or recover after a prolonged & arduous course

Bottom line: there's huge variation which makes it tough to pinpoint where someone might be on that spectrum
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
(1/4) Other than the experimental antibodies, Trump has gotten what - remdesivir, dexamethasone - we give to our Covid patients with hypoxia
(2/4) From the way questions were answered, the fact that dex was started (which can have side effects including confusion) & he was on supplemental O2 suggests to me that his O2 may have been lower than they are letting on

Supplemental O2 usually isn't given unless O2 sat <90%
(3/4) With Covid19 & pneumonias in general, you typically don't get 'transient' drops in O2 as much as persistent (& potentially progressive) hypoxia lasting for at least hours

Transient drops usually happen from mucous plugs or aspiration

Unclear to me what the actual story is
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
1/ A hang-up on rapid tests that I've heard is that it'll be difficult for health depts to track results

Decentralized screening makes that difficult but stopping spread should be the overwhelming priority; monitoring indirectly helps stop spread but is a secondary consideration
2/ We shouldn't hold up something that can stop transmission because it will be harder to monitor or collect data on

The current counterfactual is that we're missing most infections anyway & neither stopping onward transmission from them or getting any data on them
3/ What's generally been missing from the rapid testing discussion are counterfactuals

Anyone can point out issues that arise if using them but that is meaningless without considering what is happening w/o them & thoughtfully strategizing on how to address potential downsides
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
1/ This is an important point - models are not all bad/good or about prediction but rather tools for guiding what needs to be done

In the Ebola epidemic, we modeled spread in each locality to plan where we needed testing sites & calculate how many treatment beds may be needed
2/ There was a lag between determining a need & getting it established so the best we could do was use modeling to start deployment &, if transmission shifted & changed, we revised our models & adjusted our projections & plans
3/ In many instances, we were part of the way towards establishing a testing or treatment site when transmission shifted differently & they were no longer needed at the place we planned but required elsewhere
Read 4 tweets
7 Sep
1/ I work in a hospital with a steady flow of Covid. Just a few weeks ago, we were overcapacity- more ICU patients than beds, more Covid patients than isolation rooms, more telemetry patients than telemetry beds

This was in August when we usually have a lull in overall caseload
2/ In pre-Covid winters, we typically fill to capacity & periodically have to 'surge' not even because of flu but other respiratory viruses & environmental triggers for chronic lung disease

If that happened a few weeks ago, there'd literally be no way to manage the patient load
3/ Without more aggressive reductions in circulating virus, we are on pace for not a 'twindemic,' but a 'multidemic'

This will come at a time when many hospital systems are actually cutting back staffing due to revenue losses from elective procedures
Read 4 tweets

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