Thread by @eliehonig

Prediction: New Jersey, and the other states on this case, will win this case in the Supreme Court.

Here's why (thread below):

https://twitter.com/NewJerseyOAG/status/1333427008903258112

1) The Supreme Court in 2019 already rejected the Trump administration's effort to add a question to the census about a person's citizenship. The ruling was ultimately by a 5-4 vote, with all sorts of cross-ideological alliances (and disputes) on various parts of the ruling.

2) The census entails two steps: the Secretary of Commerce reports the numbers to the President, who then reports the numbers to Congress.

The census results are vital. They determine the number of Reps for each state, and apportionment of billions in federal funding.

3) President Trump has instructed Commerce to segregate the numbers into two piles: (1) total census count, and (2) total count, *minus* undocumented people.

The President has said he will report only the second number -- total count *minus* undocumented people -- to Congress.

4) The Constitution is clear: it requires that the census count the "whole number of persons in each State." The key word, of course, is "persons." If the Framers meant "citizens," they could and would have said so. "Persons" means all people, regardless of immigration status.

5) Now, Justice Amy Coney Barrett has replaced Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg since the 2019 ruling. If everything else remains the same but that vote flips, it would mean a 5-4 vote in favor of the President.

6) But: the legal issue here is different. It all comes down to whether "persons" means "persons" or "persons, but not certain kinds."

This is easy for any self-professed "textualist": "persons" = "persons." To conclude otherwise is political opportunism, not textualism.

7) Bottom line: I expect a cross-ideological decision against the President's proposed action.