Thread by @ikkmurugan

Will Rajini’s entry affect DMK or ADMK or both?

☀️ DMK got 22.5% Votes-1991
☀️ DMK got 42.1% Votes-1996
☀️ DMK got 30.9% Votes-2001
☀️ DMK got 26.5% Votes-2006

🍃 ADMK got 44.4% Votes-1991
🍃 ADMK got 21.5% Votes-1996
🍃 ADMK got 31.4% Votes-2001
🍃 ADMK got 32.6% Votes-2006

Votes Polled
🗳 1991 - 2.5 Cr
🗳 1996 - 2.8 Cr
🗳 2001 - 2.8 Cr
🗳 2006 - 3.3 Cr

How many votes did DMK & ADMK get when they lost?

🍃1991 - ADMK - 1.11 Cr
☀️1996 - DMK - 1.18 Cr
🍃 2001 - ADMK - 88 L
☀️ 2006 - DMK - 87 L

How many votes did DMK & ADMK get when they lost?

☀️1991 - DMK - 55 L
🍃1996 - ADMK - 60 L
☀️2001 - DMK - 86 L
🍃 2006 - ADMK - 107 L

ADMK lost 51 Lakh votes in 96, DMK lost 38 Lakh votes in 2001.

In 2006, DMK just gained 1 lakh votes & ADMK gained 30 Lakh votes but DMK won

The sudden dip in votes when parties lose only indicate that Except the party cadres and loyal vote bank, 35%-40% voters during that period voted basis of popular perception on administration & not ideology.

Rajini in 1996 influenced the decision of these swing voters.

So let’s compare film industry bigwigs who became chief minister

- NTR - Contested against one prominent party - Congress
- MGR - Contested against 2 prominent parties - DMK and Congress
- Jayalalitha- Contested against 1 Prominent party - DMK. Congress was her ally in 91.

And now Rajini has to now contest against 4 Strong parties ADMK, DMK, Congress and BJP. And against MNM, NTK.

Rajini makkal mandram claims to have 1 Crore members. Let’s assume there are no duplication or fake members and 80% are available to vote. That makes it 80 Lakh voters

If you consider they are equally distributed then it makes it 34,000 per constituency.

Even if is unequally distributed it wouldn’t be more than 45,000 in 187 constituencies & 21,000 in 47 constituencies.

In 2016 90 parties and close to 1500 independent candidates contested election.

Out of the 90 parties, 80 will put together have 2.5% vote bank. So to begin with of the 5 crore expected voters reduce 13 lakh voters.

Next is PMK which has maintained 5.5% votes. That makes it 28 Lakh votes. Independent and PMK take away 50 lakh votes to begin with.

INC has maintained a 6% Loyal vote bank and BJP today will have atleast 8% vote bank. These two put together will take away 70 lakh votes.

Assuming MNM and NTK will gain 3% respectively will take away 30 lakh votes.

MDMK, DMDK, VCK and Communists have 5% vote bank which could have raised upto 7% now. Which takes away 35 lakh votes.

You have the IUML and the new AIMIM coming to the foray. Assuming they get 2% votes and 10 lakh votes.

All the above put together takes away 2.1 Crore votes of the total 5 Crore.

ADMK received 1.7 Cr & DMK received 1.3 Cr of the 4.3 crore votes in 2016.

But ADMK contested in 234 constituencies all alone in 2016. In 2011 they received 1.4 lakh votes.

ADMK will loose 15% due to incumbency and gain atleast 10% new voters which bring them to 1.5 Crore voters.

On the other hand DMK would retain atleast 1 Crore voters, an addition of 20 lakh votes to their 2011 figure.

Now the total votes of all parties is 4.6 Crores against 5 crores. Rajini’s loyal 40 out of 80 lakh voters now carved away from 2 bigwigs equally.

This takes ADMK to 1.3 Crore votes and DMK to 80 lakh votes. Assume it affects ADMK majorly, even then the ADMK vote bank will not reduce below 1.1 Crore.

Too many parties in the state has only brought a compulsion of alliance.

These are Assuming Rajini already has 1 Crore members. But his loyal supporter Maridhas has only 4 lakh subscribers to his YouTube channel. Which is less than 5%. Not all subscribers will vote as well.

Although it is incomparable, the math doesn’t work out well.

DMK has not been in power for 10 years so they keep basking on their past glories and attack ruling govt.

Incumbent ADMK has performed well in multiple fronts and have tried to revamp image after 2019 debacle. There are no major complaints about this govt as of today.

But there is a void in leadership in both parties. Whether people accept the new leaders will only be seen on result day of 2021 election.

But Rajini contesting alone will help identify his vote bank, strong & weak constituencies but difficult to cross the 117 mark all alone.

When they won?*