The GOP is in the grip of insurrectionists. It's controlled by a president who's trying to overthrow an election, and a base that's rallying in streets to threaten coups and civil war.

The match hasn't been struck yet. But here are some warning signs. /1
The president has demanded direct intervention in the election:

- Millions of votes for Biden, because they were counted outside the view of GOP partisans, must be nullified
- “the results of the individual swing states must be overturned ... immediately.” /2
Trump is rejecting Biden's legitimacy:

“Biden can only enter the White House as President if he can prove that his ridiculous ‘80,000,000 votes’ were not fraudulently or illegally obtained”

Biden “cannot be considered ‘president’” and should be called “presidential occupant” /3
Trump is demanding illegal measures in GA. He has told the governor to “take charge,” invoke “emergency powers,” break a consent decree, “get tough” with Dems, and “call in the Legislature” so Trump can “quickly and easily win the State.”

Trump literally wrote, “Get it done!” /4
Trump directly pressured the AG to back up his fraud lies.
He fired the cybersecurity czar for not doing so.
He told police to bust “Human Radical Left garbage,” and “Don’t hold back.”
He called GA's top election official, who's under physical threats, “an enemy of the people” /5
Trump's de facto lawyers endorsed a manifesto calling for “limited martial law.” It authorizes Trump to “suspend the Constitution and civilian control of … elections” so “the military” can hold “a national re-vote.”

Otherwise, "we will ... take matters into our own hands.” /6
Here’s what Trump’s base is shouting at rallies:

“We don’t want a civil war, but we’re already in one. And we’re in it to win it.”
“We’re getting ready to start shooting.”
“Protect him at any cost”
“I’d love to see half of these people hung by the neck.”
“Victory or Death!” /7
GA's Republican elections manager begged Trump to “stop inspiring people to commit potential acts of violence.“ He warned, “Someone’s going to get killed.”

Trump directly replied to him by accusing GA officials of knowing about, and refusing to uncover, “massive voter fraud.” /8
In GA yesterday, Pence vowed to ”keep fighting until every illegal vote is thrown out.” Election officials are under death threats, and Republican politicians are afraid to stand up to the president and his insurrectionist base. The fuse has been lit. /END

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Will Saletan

Will Saletan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @saletan

29 Nov
"Close the bars and keep the schools open," says Fauci on @ThisWeekABC. "The default position should be to try... to keep the children in school or to get them back to school. ... If you look at the data, the spread among children and from children is not really very big at all."
.@margbrennan: "Are you asking governors to close the bars to keep schools open? Is that your advice?"

Birx doesn't say yes. She says where cases and hospitalizations are high, the first places to close are those "where people cannot wear masks," i.e., "bars and... restaurants."
Birx emphasizes masks, not closures. "What we do know works is mask mandates," she says in response to the question about bars. In states, cities, and counties that mandated masks, "We can see a really significant difference in not only cases but hospitalizations and fatalities."
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
"Don’t talk to me that way! You’re just a—you’re just a lightweight! ... I’m the president of the United States! Don’t ever talk to the president that way!”

Today at the White House, Trump had one of the saddest meltdowns you'll see by a public figure. /1
Trump rejected the election:

"It was a rigged election, 100%."
"This election was a fraud."
"Joe Biden did not get 80 million votes."
"I got 74 million, but there were many ballots thrown away. So I got much more than that."
"At the highest level, it was a rigged election." /2
Trump claimed *millions* of votes were fraudulent:

"687,000 fraudulent votes cast in PA."
"I won [GA] by hundreds of thousands of votes."
"We have tens of thousands votes more than we need in all cases."
"You’re gonna find fraud of hundreds of thousands of votes per state." /3
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov
This comparison of Monmouth's final PA polls shows how samples have been adjusted to avoid a 2016 surprise. 2016 weighting on left, 2020 on right.

Dems are down from +11 to +2. And education weighting is added to ensure 64% are non-college.

Biden leads anyway, by 5 to 7 points.
Links to the docs:



Search for "weight."

Kudos to @MonmouthPoll for publishing its methodology and crosstabs in such detail. Most pollsters don't.
Left: Siena poll of PA, late Oct. 2016.
Right: Siena poll of PA, late Oct. 2020.

Party ID in the sample went from D+5 to D+3.

Non-college went from 56% to 60%.

Gender shifted from 54-46 female to 52-47.

Clinton led 46-39. Biden, in the more difficult 2020 sample, led 49-43.
Read 4 tweets
31 Oct
Vote. If you do, Trump is gone. These numbers explain why.

1) Biden leads by 5 in PA. He leads by 8 to 9 in MI and WI. That’s bigger than Clinton's leads at this point.

Even if Trump gets the same surge he got in 2016 in those states, Biden wins them.
2) In 2016, Trump did NOT surge in FL, GA, or AZ. His margin ended up just the same as the margin in polls four days before the election.

Biden is leading those states by 2.1, 1.6, and 3.1. He doesn't have to win them. But if he gets one, that's insurance in case he loses PA.
3) Unlike Clinton, Biden is above 50% in MI, WI, and PA. Trump can't just pick up undecideds. He has to take vote share from Biden.

Biden is also closer to 50% in FL, NC, GA, and AZ than Clinton was. He has an extra 2.5 points in those states, on average.
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
Excerpts of @MarkMeadows' jaw-dropping CNN interview:

1) He says WH is focused on limiting deaths, not spread. "We’re not going to control the pandemic," he says. "What we need to do is make sure that we have... vaccines or treatments to make sure that people don’t die" from it.
2) @MarkMeadows derides Biden for promoting masks: “This president is leading, while Joe Biden is sitting there suggesting that we’re going to mandate masks.”

”What is Joe Biden’s plan for the pandemic?” Meadows asks later. ”He’s going to wear two masks, like he does every day?”
3) Meadows argues that masks aren't "the answer," since experts admit they wouldn't make schools perfectly safe.

He suggests mask science is dubious because WH virus officials Fauci and Birx, "the people you like to tout," changed their views. (They now strongly urge mask use.)
Read 6 tweets
24 Oct
2020 is not 2016. To come back and win, Trump would need a far greater miracle than he got last time.

This thread shows surveys from 5 key states. Same pollsters, similar time frame, 2020 vs. 2016. Look at Biden’s numbers compared to Clinton’s. He's polling significantly higher.

Oct. 20-26, 2016: Clinton 45, Trump 39
Oct. 13-20, 2020: Biden 51, Trump 44

Oct. 10-16, 2016: Clinton 47, Trump 41
Oct. 16-19, 2020: Biden 51, Trump 43

Sep 30-Oct 3, 2016: Clinton 50, Trump 40
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2020: Biden 53, Trump 45

Oct. 14-20, 2016: Clinton 45, Trump 41
Oct. 14-20, 2020: Biden 51, Trump 44

Oct. 22-24, 2016: Clinton 41, Trump 34
Oct. 15-19, 2020: Biden 48, Trump 39

Glengariff Group
Oct. 10-11, 2016: Clinton 42, Trump 31
Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2020: Biden 48, Trump 39
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!