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Somesh Jha

7 Dec, 10 tweets, 4 min read

Breaking: India's chief economic advisor wants the junked consumer spending report to be made public. Krishnamurthy Subramanian wrote to the National Statistical Commission seeking the survey report of 2017-18 for analysis in the upcoming Economic Survey.

business-standard.com/article/econom…

Consumer spending fell for the first time in more than four decades in 2017-18, primarily driven by slackening rural demand, sparking fears of rising poverty in the country. The government withheld the report which was made public by us in November, 2019:

business-standard.com/article/econom…

The day the survey results were made public by us the government announced scrapping of the survey report citing 'data quality issues.'

This was the first time the govt scrapped an NSSO survey of this scale since the stats body was established in 1950.

business-standard.com/article/econom…

The National Statistical Commission, an apex autonomous statistical body, wasn't consulted before the govt announced junking the report. NSC Chairman Bimal Kr Roy had told us in an interview in Dec 2019 that he wasnt in favour of such a move.

business-standard.com/article/econom…

While scrapping the survey report, the govt had said that a committee had found data quality issues. However, the committee which had submitted its report in Sept 2019 didnt recommend junking of the report nor did it flag "data quality" issues.

business-standard.com/article/econom…

In November 2019, over 200 global economists, experts and academicians wrote an open letter asking the Modi government to release the junked National Statistical Office (NSO) consumer expenditure survey report for year 2017-18.

business-standard.com/article/econom…

While junking the report, the govt had said that the survey results didnt match other trends, particularly the GDP data. But an expert group had said there was no point making such a comparison & gave explanations as to why the consumer spending fell.

business-standard.com/article/econom…

In Jan 2020, the NSC decided against releasing the survey results.

When asked why, the NSC Chairman had said: “I did try...I did put in the proposal as chairman but it didn’t get through. I cannot say anything more now.”

business-standard.com/article/econom…

This is what happened in the meeting:

The then Chief Statistician Pravin Srivastava objected to the release of the survey data. One NSC member raised objections and pressed for the data to be made public. But his views weren’t incorporated in the minutes of the meeting.

This is how our statistical system was compromised.

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More from @someshjha7

Somesh Jha

@someshjha7

12 Oct

Thread: Instead of hiking retrenchment compensation for workers, the Modi government has mooted a reskilling fund in the new labour codes.

Retrenched workers will get cash benefits to the tune of 15 days of their last drawn salary. But here's the catch.

Retrenched workers who take cash benefits from the new reskilling fund mooted in the labour codes may have to show proof of reskilling to the government.

But the story doesn't end here...

business-standard.com/article/econom…

If workers are unable to reskill within a fixed period of time, they will have to RETURN the money given to them by the government, according to a proposal being contemplated by the central government. Moreover, the workers may be asked to pay back an interest, too.

Read 7 tweets

Somesh Jha

@someshjha7

5 Oct

Work in the private sector? Thanks to the Modi government, your company can now convert your permanent job into a fixed term contract and take away your retrenchment benefits.

Read our story:

business-standard.com/article/econom…

While the farm Bills created a lot of controversy, contentious labour law changes had no-takers.

The government quietly did away with a key safeguard norm for workers to deter firms from converting existing permanent jobs into fixed-term contracts.

Why is this proposal dangerous?

In India, unlike in China, Vietnam and Indonesia, there will be no cap on the number of times fixed-term contracts can be renewed (companies can do it endlessly).

Fixed-term contracts are seen as stepping stone towards permanent jobs.

Read 9 tweets

Somesh Jha

@someshjha7

2 Oct

Just in: Ten central trade unions (which does not include RSS-affiliated Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh) to go on a one-day nationwide strike on November 26 against labour codes and new farm laws.

Demands of trade unions:
*Cash transfer of Rs 7500 a month for all non-income tax paying families
*10 kg free ration/person a month to all needy
*Expansion of MGNREGA to provide 200 days’ work in a year in rural areas at enhanced wages; extension of employment guarantee to cities

*Withdraw all farm laws and labour codes
*Stop privatisation of public sector
*Withdraw the circular on forced premature retirement of government employees
*Provide pension to all, scrap NPS and restore earlier pension, improve EPS-95

Read 4 tweets

Somesh Jha

@someshjha7

28 Sep

Six months after a national lockdown was imposed, I travelled to 5 villages of Allahabad (now known as Prayagraj) to talk to over two dozen migrant workers who returned home.

"Nothing feels like home" for them as they struggle to make ends meet.

business-standard.com/article/econom…

Ramesh Chand (right) was 15 yrs old when his brother-in-law took him to Mumbai & gave him a job at his garment factory after his father died. Srivastava (now 46), who had made the 'city of dreams' his own, wasnt paid for during the lockdown even by his guardian.

According to official estimates, about 10 million workers returned to their home states after the lockdown. Close to one-third belonged to Uttar Pradesh and Allahabad saw the second highest reverse migration in the state (over 100,000).

Read 12 tweets

Somesh Jha

@someshjha7

25 Sep

Must read: The labour codes approved by the Parliament earlier this week gives the States unbridled powers to make changes to labour laws without going through the legislative route.

Getting the labour codes approved was a cakewalk for the government.

business-standard.com/article/econom…

The move will help industries in pushing authorities for exemption under various labour laws at a micro-level, along with demanding changes to bring greater flexibility in their operations related to retrenchment, safety standards, and collective bargaining.

States can now easily:

*Ease retrenchment, lay-off and closure norms
*Exempt new factories from all occupational safety health & working conditions norms for as long as they want (timelimit is 3 months rn)
*Exempt all establishments from the industrial relations law

Read 4 tweets

Somesh Jha

@someshjha7

21 Sep

The government’s proposed labour law changes will facilitate easier dismissal of workers as companies employing up to 300 workers will not be required to frame standing orders for its workforce. A thread on the importance of standing orders:

A standing order is a legally binding collective employment contract and holds significance as it contains key work-related terms and conditions and is meant to prevent arbitrary dismissal of employees.

Such orders are compulsory for every firm hiring at least 100 workers at present and the government has proposed increasing the threshold for the first time to 300 workers.

Read 8 tweets

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