There is a fine line between allocating some resources of a vast budget to researching remote possibilities (rational) and crackpottery. marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
“Along with classified briefings, multiple senior U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the matter say two classified intelligence reports on UAP have been widely distributed...reports include clear photographic evidence of UAP.”

thedebrief.org/fast-movers-an…
US intelligence agencies have 180 days to share what they know about UFOs, thanks to the Covid-19 relief and spending bill edition.cnn.com/2021/01/10/us/…
Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe about UFOs: "Usually we have multiple sensors that are picking up these things...there is actually quite a few more than have been made public"

If UFO sightings are indeed due to aliens, what could be their motivations to behave as they do? overcomingbias.com/2021/03/social…
"I’ve noticed that this topic of UFOs makes me feel especially uncomfortable. I look at the many details, and many seem to cry out “there really is something important here.”" overcomingbias.com/2021/04/meta-c…
WTF? How many UFO sightings have gone unreported because of such rules and the social stigma associated with them?

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More from @XiXiDu

2 Apr
Energy-harvesting card treats 5G networks as wireless power grids newatlas.com/energy/5g-ener…

"...it should be possible to harvest around 6 microwatts at around 180 meters (590 ft) from a 5G transmitter."
"An energy-harvesting circuit based on graphene could be incorporated into a chip to provide clean, limitless, low-voltage power for small devices or sensors," phys.org/news/2020-10-p…
Teeny-Tiny Bluetooth Transmitter Runs on Less Than 1 Milliwatt spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/semi…

Consuming just 0.6 milliwatts during transmission, it would broadcast for 11 years using a typical 5.8-mm coin battery.
Read 4 tweets
2 Apr
The Fermi paradox gets worse and worse.
Scientists have observed a single-cell alga evolve in real time into a multicellular organism. The transition took around a year and was caused by the introduction of a predator into the environment. nature.com/articles/s4159…
The ctenophore’s brain suggests that, if evolution began again, intelligence would re-emerge

“invented neurons, muscles & other specialised tissues, independently from the rest of the animal kingdom, using different starting materials" aeon.co/essays/what-th…
Read 10 tweets
14 Feb
Is journalism even a real profession? What valuable skill could someone like Scott Alexander learn from studying journalism?
Some skills you learn as a journalist:

1. How to interview people.
2. Providing a helpful physical description of the people you interview: frontpagemag.com/fpm/2021/02/cr…
Read 20 tweets
12 Feb
Whenever someone publicly "wastes" food for a purpose other than eating, someone else comes along and complains about it by citing "hunger in Africa".

What's your best steel man argument in support of this complaint?
For example, if I, living in Germany, was to take a bar of edible chocolate and just threw it in the garbage, how would this behavior negatively affect the food supply in poor countries like Yemen?
Some answers I got so far:

1. Wasting food will raise prices for globally traded food commodities, which will mean that those on lower incomes can afford to eat less.
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec 20
Expert opinion can be a starting point when one tries to figure out the truth but definitely not the last word on a topic.

Prediction markets, rationalists, and generally people with skin in the game are all better sources of truth than experts.
How to weigh expert opinion:

- Large penalty if the topic is politicized.
- Medium/large penalty if it pertains soft sciences.
- Medium penalty if the opinion seems to be in conflict with more fundamental principles.
- Small/medium penalty if it involves financial incentives.
The classic example of what I mean by being "in conflict with more fundamental principles" is the perpetual motion machine.

But it can also be more subtle like claiming that border closure won't slow down a pandemic when it obviously does in the limiting case.
Read 9 tweets
9 Oct 20
In late January, rationalists on Twitter were already warning about COVID-19 and stocking respirators. So why did America fail so miserably? Was it only Trump's fault? ImageImageImageImage
New York Times, January 31: "At this point, sharply curtailing air travel to and from China is more of an emotional or political reaction..." nytimes.com/2020/01/31/bus…

New York Times, September 30: (see screenshot) nytimes.com/2020/09/30/wor… Image
The Washington Post, January 31: “In disregard of WHO recommendation against travel restrictions, the US went the opposite way,” the ministry’s spokesman said in English-language messages on Twitter on Friday. “Where is its empathy?” washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020…
Read 22 tweets

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