These are just polling averages, FYI. We are not issuing probabilistic forecasts of the Georgia runoffs, not for any philosophical reason—they'll be back in 2022/24—but because our full-fledged Congressional model isn't really designed to handle one-off races like these.
To be honest that's probably for the best, because there are a lot of judgment calls in terms of what the "fundamentals" look like in this election. Is this equivalent to a midterm, in which you might expect a pretty red environment vs. Biden? Maybe not given how Trump is acting.
How blue/red is Georgia? That's another sensitive assumption based on how many years you'd want to go back.
Is an appointed incumbent like Loeffler weaker than an elected one like Perdue? Probably.
Is their stock trading enough of a scandal to sway some voters? Don't know.
Is an appointed incumbent like Loeffler weaker than an elected one like Perdue? Probably.
Is their stock trading enough of a scandal to sway some voters? Don't know.
It's also hard to know what to make of Ossoff and Warnock. Neither has held elected office before, which is usually bad news. But they are both experienced campaigners and super familiar to voters at this point (especially Ossoff).
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
