1. A quick little riff on remote work in light of all the news speculation about finance/ VC moving to Miami etc etc etc.
2. First, I think that the BIG geographic impact of the pandemic will be more on the geography of where we work than where we live.
3. I think remote work has several different implications ...
4. Looks to me like the share of remote workers seems to be stabilizing at about 20% of the workforce, of course virtually all professional workers
5. The remote workers who will relocate away from cities or to new metros are mainly those with families or forming families.
6. These folks have long relocated away from cities. But in the past they were tied to nearby suburbs. Now they can move to more further flung metros.
7. But young people will continue to be drawn to cities, for opportunity. And they will locate there even if they can remote work.
8. Lots of college students moved back to college towns this year, out of dorms to apartments, even when classes were on-line.
9. Younger people will want to meet other people, socialize etc. So cities will also capture some share of remote workers.
10. Communities like Tulsa which have been very intentional in attracting remote workers will also gain.
11. But there is another smaller fraction of remote workers - super high net worth people who work in finance, VC, tech and real estate. Who can move to locations like South Florida and save a bundle on taxes.
12. Their talent base and companies typically remain near entirely in NY or the Bay Area. But these folks can game the system by homesteading in Florida and avoiding state & local income taxes.
13. Very little "work" has moved. Only the residence of the owner ...
14. The fiscal implications of this for superstar cities are prerty big, because their revenue models are tied to high net worth owners. So the fiscal hit from a very small number of relocations is high.
15. My hunch is the biggest impact of remote work is on the central business districts of cities. These will take a big hit - 20%? 30%? reduction? My guess is something like that.
16. Those CBDs will undergo sweeping transformation, hopefully as some of that office space is transformed into more affordable housing.
17. The biggest implication I see tho is that the revenue models of US cities which were based on the colocation of work and residence are going to need some serious rethinking ... End of rant ...
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