Thread by @AkivaMCohen

Texas's expert affidavit is now available here. I need you all to understand just how bad it is

supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/2…

Here are the actual bases for his opinion:

1) Biden outperformed Clinton. That's not possible if the populations who voted for them are the same. Therefore, shenanigans!

2) The ballots counted last were more pro-Biden than the overall ballots. That can't be random. Shenanigans!

I am not joking.

I wish I was joking.

I am not.

Here's his intro: "I was asked to determine whether Clinton and Biden's outcomes were similar and random." And, also, whether the two ballot-counting periods (early count, late count) were similar and randomly drawn from the same population.

Seriously. His first "statistical opinion" is that Biden outperforming Clinton is evidence of fraud

His second is "there's no way the late counted ballots were randomly selected from the overall pool of voters" oh, really, you don't say? Amazing that only everyone in the world already knew that would happen in advance of election day.

He also - from his deep well of expertise in <checks notes> voter behavior, a subject in which he has no education or experience - opines that there would likely be a higher error rate in mail in ballots in 2020 and that GA must have had fewer signature rejections b/c shenanigans

Note: GA has repeatedly said that the signature rejection rate in 2020 was virtually identical to the signature rejection rate in 2016

He also adopts - without discussion or analysis, which isn't a thing experts get to do - the Wayne County canvassers claim that Wayne was unusually out of balance

Note: There were 357 out-of-balance votes in Wayne County.

357.

In a state Trump lost by 145K freep.com/story/news/pol…

Here, the "expert" tests the "hypothesis that the performance of the two Democratic candidates were statistically similar" and reports his results

Motherfucker, we know they weren't statistically similar. Biden got a much higher percentage. You're "testing" to see whether my bank account and Patrick Mahomes' are statistically similar: they aren't.

Also, "other things being the same they would have an equal number of votes" is the stupidest fucking hypothesis in the history of hypotheses - and I have kids in elementary and high school science classes - because literally nothing relevant is the same

The candidates are different. A pandemic. Trump is an incumbent President with a record rather than a dice-roll. There's 4 years of additional history and experience and 4 years worth of teenage voters who aged into eligibility and past voters dying. What is wrong with you??

After investigation, Texas's expert can confidently "reject the hypothesis that the percentages of the votes Clinton and Biden achieved in the respective elections are similar"

I ... I'm speechless

Texas submitted an expert report to say "Biden got a higher percentage of the votes than Clinton", a subject which obviously requires expert testimony, z-scores, and circles and arrows and 8x10 glossy photographs and not just, you know, functioning eyes

"OK, sure, there are lots of different reasons people might vote for candidates but if the same exact people voted for Biden and Clinton then I can't explain the different results" said the actual human apotheosis of 1,000,000 brain genius memes

Now, how about those ballot periods? It turns out there were a lot more Biden voters in the late counted ballots than the overall population.

Brain genius's conclusion from this? The late counted ballots could NOT have been randomly selected

No, seriously. He spends a paragraph explaining that sure, he knows that people expected that, because they were coming from heavily Dem precincts and the heavily Dem absentee ballots, but he is not *personally* aware of that. This means an investigation must be done

He also did the same analysis for other states. Shockingly, he also concluded that: (1) Biden outperformed Clinton; and (2) the latest counted ballots favored Biden.

Obviously, this cries out for investigation

Especially since this involves Black peo-

Excuse me. Sorry. "Urban" people

"Look, if votes in battleground states come in at random, like flipping a true coin, it's impossible that Biden won all of these states, unlike Trump winning them in 2016, because ... wait, let's take that Trump reference out of the declaration, it doesn't work"

This "expert" report is the biggest steaming pile of crap I have ever seen, and I've seen many terrible expert reports in my career.