Key findings from the latest Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus poll.

1. Americans are more worried about COVID's impact on their health, job, and finances than since June. And for most, out of home activity is declining accordingly. axios.com/axios-ipsos-po…
2. Vaccine interest is up, with most now saying they are likely to take a COVID-19 vaccine if it public health officials say it is safe and effective (69%), has a 90%+ effectiveness rate (67%), or has been on the market a few months (65%). ipsos.com/en-us/news-pol…
3. A small minority of people (18%) are driving most of the indoor activity outside the home that drives spread. Only 44% of this group wear a mask when outside home and only 36% are very concerned about the virus. These are the folks (more male, <55, GOP) whose help we need.
4. Further data provided to me (thank you @Axios / @IpsosUS) shows that the #GriefGap by race remains extremely wide. Almost everyone now knows someone who has been infected, but Black and Hispanic people are nearly 20 percentage points more likely to know someone who died. Data from the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index

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More from @Atul_Gawande

3 Nov
Spoke to @MarketWatch and here are a few of the points I made:

- Today's election determines who's in charge Jan 20, but what happens with addressing the major surge of COVID19 cases and hospitalizations and with vaccines is being determined now. marketwatch.com/story/dr-gawan…
- If we get an effective vaccine, the big problem won't be hesitancy, but lack of supply and distribution resources forcing hard choices among priority groups.

- We will need a mass movement to back mask-wearing, far more testing, and open hospital data.
- And, finally, if Trump holds onto power, we cannot give up hope. We still have ways for states, Congress, and the public to fight the virus even if this administration won't. We still have ways to not let doctors and science become demonized.
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
This week, we at @AriadneLabs and @SurgoFoundation released a Vaccine Allocation Planner for states and cities to plan #COVID19vaccine distribution. As you start working with it, you realize just how wrenching the choices are going to be. covid19vaccineallocation.org
.@moderna_tx says it will have 20M doses of its vaccine by Jan; @pfizer 30-40M. It’s unknown if either will work. But if one does, we may have enough for 10-20M people. (Remember, it’s 2 doses per person). qz.com/1924433/the-us…
We have 19M first responders and high-risk health care workers. For this group alone, we may already have shortages. And that’s without even getting to nursing home residents, the chronically ill, or essential workers.
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
.@casssunstein lays out the prisoner's dilemma that Democrats find themselves in with the GOP, but doesn't quite lay out what game theory has taught us about the best way to proceed: Generous Tit-for-Tat (or Tit-for-Tat with Forgiveness). 1/9 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
This @Radiolab episode describes the 1960s tournament with computer programs vying with one another in a version of a Cuban Missile crisis to see if they could avoid escalating to Armageddon. Here were the algorithms. 2/9 wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radio…
Massive Retaliatory Strike: Cooperate until the first attack, then retaliate the rest of the time. Result: mostly Armageddon. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
Masks work? YES. This is appalling. Atlas offers no explanation for the increasing mountain of evidence in support, and instead offers only a bizarre and incoherent paper. I don't know why the administration wants to die on this hill.
So, once again, what is the evidence?

In my May article on the regimen hospitals have used to stop spread of COVID19 (hygiene, distancing, masks, and testing at least symptomatic people), I review the copious evidence to then on why masks work. newyorker.com/science/medica…
Since that article, numerous corroborating studies have come out. This comprehensive review lays out the strong laboratory evidence of the ability of surgical masks and cloth masks to prevent transmission. europepmc.org/article/PPR/PP…
Read 12 tweets
17 Oct
Warning for COVID scientists: An impostor is asking scientists for an interview using the email atulgawande65@gmail.com (not mine) and signature “Atul Gawande, Staff Writer, The New Yorker.”

These are fake. Do not respond. I use a bwh.harvard.edu address for work. 1/4
One scientist did respond. It led to back-and-forth emails and a brief phone call to settle on an interview time. The impersonator sent a Microsoft Teams-like link. The result was a hack that accessed the victim’s computer, phone, apple ID, business and home gmail accounts. 2/4
They also accessed Twitter and other social media accounts.

They have possession of the scientist's financial account details.

And most disturbing, they tried to get into the person’s home security alarm system. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
16 Oct
And with the CDC under a political thumb, it’s crazy but fortunate we can rely on independent sources like Johns Hopkins’ @JHUSystems and @TheAtlantic’s @COVID19Tracking for basic facts on COVID19
Meanwhile, however, “The Trump White House has installed 2 political operatives at the [CDC] to try to control the information it releases about the coronavirus pandemic as the administration seeks to paint a positive outlook.“ apnews.com/article/electi…
Read 4 tweets

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