Thread by @jpags

NEW: For more than 10 years, Scarborough residents have been promised improved transit — including a subway. But nothing has been done. Has Scarborough been taken for a ride thestar.com/content/thesta… /1

With news the Scarborough RT will fail before anything is built, leaving transit users on the bus, possibly for years, I compiled everything I know about the decisions that led us here, for the first time in chronological order. This will be a long thread. /2

December 2010: During his first day in office, Rob Ford declares David Miller's Transit City LRT plan is dead (Spoiler: It's not). /3

March 2011: But it doesn't happen like that. Ford signs a memorandum of understanding with Metrolinx to kill the Finch & Sheppard LRTs and completely bury the Eglinton Crosstown without council's approval. The original seven-top Scarborough LRT is part of this non-binding deal /4

February 2012: In a major defeat, council rebukes this transit arrangement that requires their approval and votes to build the Transit City lines, including the Scarborough LRT. Ford’s TTC chair Karen Stintz leads the revolt. /5

June 2012: But then things get weird. In a stunning reversal, Stintz, with then Coun. Glenn De Baeremaeker, proposes a new transit plan, called OneCity, that would see a subway built in Scarborough. They say a benefit would be not needing to shut down the SRT. /6

July 2012: Sixteen days later, council swiftly cans the OneCity plan. Some were for it though: /7

November 2012: Things get official and the city signs an agreement with Metrolinx to build the Scarborough LRT at the province’s cost. It is scheduled to be completed in 2020. This agreement is still in place today /8

May 2013: De Baeremaeker moves to re-open consideration of a subway. Breaking council procedure, on advice from Ford's office, Speaker Frances Nunziata allows it. Council backs a subway despite the master agreement thestar.com/news/city_hall… /9

July 2013 (1): Metrolinx is like - Hey, Council? Do you want to build an LRT or a subway? Asks them to decide by August. Staff scramble to write report with analysis then chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat later tells me was “rushed”, “problematic thestar.com/news/city_hall… /10

July 2013 (2): The staff report boosts the projected ridership for a subway as high as 14,000 without explanation — barely justifying a subway's capacity. Keesmaat questions this privately and doesn’t seem to know where the ridership figure came from thestar.com/news/city_hall… /11

July 2013 (3): Ford refutes basic facts about the LRT during the council debate, frustrating LRT advocate Josh Matlow (). But council votes anyways, 28-16, for a subway with no way to pay for it. /12

July 2013 (4): At the same time, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal provincial government is working behind-the-scenes to kill the LRT they had agreed to build. The Liberal candidate, Mitzie Hunter, faces a difficult byelection in Scarborough. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /13

September 2013: A secret draft report produced by Metrolinx concludes the subway is “not a worthwhile use of money” compared to the LRT, but it is not published or provided to council ahead of a key vote. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /14

October 2013: Council confirms their decision to build a subway in a close 24 to 20 vote, committing all Toronto taxpayers to pay for it through increased taxes for the next 30 years. /15

February 2014: John Tory enters the 2014 mayoral race, overshadowing Stintz’s own campaign launch earlier in the day. /16

August 2014: Lagging in the polls, Stintz quits the mayoral race. “I fought for more than that for the last 11 years and I’ve built a strong community and I’ve contributed to the city and I’ve fought for funded transit — I wanted that to be my legacy.” thestar.com/news/city_hall… /17

October 2014: Tory wins the election, becoming the city’s 65th mayor, beating Ford’s brother Doug after Rob becomes ill with cancer. He vows to build a three-stop subway. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /18

January 2015: City staff won’t disclose how much it’s cost to cancel the LRT thestar.com/news/city_hall… (It’s $75M). Meanwhile, Tory has a problem because the McCowan subway route conflicts with his “SmartTrack” plan. His office starts looking at alternative, more costly routes. /19

January 2016 (1): There's also the problem of the three-stop subway costs ballooning. Tory and Keesmaat present a “peace in the land” plan to build a one-stop subway instead. They sell it as a cheaper “express option” thestar.com/news/gta/trans… /20

January 2016 (2): By cutting the number of stops to just one, Keesmaat and Tory claim the savings can be used to build an Eglinton East LRT. But behind-the-scenes, staff can’t confirm that 2-for-1 deal is possible thestar.com/news/city_hall… /21

January 2016 (3): And while Keesmaat claims the costs were verified, they weren’t thestar.com/news/city_hall… /22

May 2016: The unverified cost of the subway climbs to >$2B. We learn ridership is projected to be just 7,300 in the peak period — less than the ridership projected for the seven-stop LRT and just 20 per cent of the upper capacity (36,000) of a subway. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /23

June 2016 (1): Costs for the 1-stop climb again to ~$3B. TTC gives a briefing note to the mayor’s office and that of TTC chair Josh Colle that leaks to media. It has misleading information about the viability of the LRT preferred by Matlow and others thestar.com/news/city_hall… /24

June 2016 (2): Among the problems with the briefing note is that it inflates the LRT’s cost by hundreds of millions of dollars (thestar.com/news/city_hall…). Metrolinx has correcting info but doesn’t provide it. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /25

June 2016 (3): TTC CEO Andy Byford’s own texts contradict his public statements about the origin of that briefing note. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /26

July 2016: The cost estimate for the one-stop subway was based on exaggerated and rushed info as well as hand-drawn sketches but council approves it anyways. The vote is 27 to 16. thestar.com/news/gta/2018/… /27

March 2017 (1): The cost of the subway climbs once again to an estimated $3.35B. Council votes 26 to 18 to approve it and rejects an attempt by Matlow to ask staff to conduct a value-for-money analysis of the subway vs. LRT, which has never been done. /28

March 2017 (2): City staff think the subway might cost $900 million more than the price tag they publicly give, but never tell council that. That additional cost would be more than the city has earmarked for all Scarborough transit. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /29

October 2017: Mayor Tory is briefed by the TTC that the updated costs of the Scarborough subway will be available before the 2018 election but staff say they won’t publish them until after the election in which Tory is seeking a second term in office. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /30

May 2018: Doug Ford, running for election as the leader of the Ontario PC Party, says he wants to see a three-stop subway built instead of Tory’s one-stop plan.

June 2018: Doug Ford becomes premier of Ontario. thestar.com/news/queenspar… /31

July 2018: At the last minute, Keesmaat signs up to run against Tory in the municipal election and vows to use city funds for Scarborough transit to build an LRT along Eglinton Avenue East.

https://twitter.com/jpags/status/1022897872600264704?lang=en

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October 2018: Tory wins a second term as mayor, deftly defeating Keesmaat. He promises to build the one-stop subway despite unknown costs. thestar.com/news/toronto-e… /33

March 2019: After vowing to upload the city’s subway system, Ford’s provincial government claims costs for the Scarborough subway have doubled. thestar.com/news/gta/2019/… /34

April 2019 (1): After Ford unveils a new transit plan for Toronto, Tory urges Ford to not delay existing plans as staff confirm the cost of the one-stop subway has risen to $3.9B — officially exceeding all available funding for Scarborough transit. thestar.com/news/gta/2019/… /35

April 2019 (2): The SRT’s aging fleet reaches a “critical juncture” with a shortage of cars due to needed repairs leaving little margin for error in service delivery. thestar.com/news/gta/2019/… /36

May 2019: The PC government tables legislation to take over new Toronto transit projects.

June 2019: City staff propose adding a fourth stop to the province’s three-stop subway plan without official direction or consent from council. thestar.com/news/city_hall… /37

October 2019: With the province agreeing to drop subway upload talk, council confirms its support of the plan that includes a 3-stop subway in a 22 to 3 vote. The subway is estimated to cost $5.5B and is scheduled to be completed in 2029 or 2030. thestar.com/news/gta/2019/… /38

February 2020: Metrolinx says there is justification for a Scarborough subway despite its own public analysis showing the costs far outweigh the benefits. thestar.com/news/gta/2020/… /39

March 2020: The provincial government puts the Scarborough subway project out for bids. Ford pushes the federal government for additional funding as he backs off a promise to go ahead with the projects on the province’s dime regardless. thestar.com/politics/provi… /40

December 2020: Tory reveals the SRT will need to shut down before the subway is built. The three-stop subway Rob Ford promised in 2013 remains not fully funded thestar.com/news/city_hall… /end (But, of course, not actually the end)

(Huge shoutout to @BenSpurr, who has done so much good reporting on this you can find above)