Thread by @gianlucac1

ITALY: Vaccines. Where do we stand? 3d

In the picture the plan of vaccine delivery

NB: vaccine are supposed to reduce severity but we have no data on transmission reduction

1/n
@CrossWordsCW

I circled in BLACK the doses which are likely to be delivered within June 2021

Considering all are 1+1 but J&J, we can assume some circa 28mn italians could be vaccinated by July, or 46.5%.

This only if there are not hiccups to the production chain
2/n cc @AurelianoStingi

HI for SarsCov2 is estimated at circa 60/70% + overshoot

So far some 0.12% of Italians died of Covid19 if we include extra-mortality non notified as Covid19 deaths

Estimated prevalence can be in the range of 9%-10% on a national basis (3x notified cases)
@Doom3Gloom
3/n

This would deliver an implied IFR of circa 1.2% which is coherent with the demographic pyramid Italy has

By July21 only 46.5% italians could be vaccinated.

If we want to compare to HIT we should add at least some of the infected by June21.

@marco_vergano
4/n

But not all those of the 1st wave in March '20 as some might have lost immunity deriving from infection. (aka they go back to S from R as this is a SEIRS)

Call it another 10% by june 21, but i hope less coz we would have seen a lot more deaths

So 46.5+10=56.5% by Jul 21

5/n

As things stand today we will not hit the so called HIT by july 21

We will continue therefore to be asked to wear masks, distancing, NPI and so on

Health system presure should in any case be reduced

Deaths should be less if vaccine work they way they seem
@DrMCecconi

6/n

but epidemiology is complicated

Reducing severity is clinically good. But is a bit complicated from the epidemic standpoint.

A severe case is epidemiologically almost irrelevant already. Once in hospital it doesnt participate to the infection cycle. (hopefully)

7/n

A severe case made pauci or asymptomatic by the vaccines, can contribute to infection and therefore to overshooting HIT if NPI are not hold firm

So NPI are likely to be requested and extend well after June 21
8/8

Might be of interest to @LucaFerrettiEvo @zorinaq @CT_Bergstrom