Thread by @bgarrettglaser

Thinking out loud here. We're now in the third "era" of #eVTOL development.

The first was pre-path-to-market tinkering, with visionary engineers at Zee, Joby, Kitty Hawk and a few other outfits working to bring early-stage electric VTOL to life.

The second era began when Uber Elevate launched, formalizing the nascent industry and presenting a clear vision of vehicle requirements and a conceptual path to profitable application.

This began the #eVTOL climb up the hype cycle in earnest & drove billions of investment.

As 2020 comes to a close, that era ends. Elevate, which dominated discussion of #eVTOLs for better/worse, is no longer a quasi-objective actor pushing vehicle development forward. The unit may continue in some limited form at Joby, but its presence will be irreversibly different.

So begins the third era of the electric VTOL revolution, in 2021.

What will it be defined by?

We may or may not have reached the peak of inflated expectations, but surely the sector is close. Some companies have already begun to cancel projects, pivot or otherwise divest.

I think we will see a clarification of the serious #eVTOL actors, and the markets they are gunning for, in the years to come. A selection of maybe 5-12 vehicle developers will receive the nine-digit funding necessary to bring an aircraft to market, and they will try to do so.

Fully understanding the weirdness/meta nature of me writing this -- I think we'll also see more negative press and perspectives in the years to come as programs run out of milestones to invent and progress toward certification takes longer than expected.

Whether or not there will be any *limited* roll-out (likely Volocopter or Joby) of #eVTOL services by 2023 is not the point. Scaled, affordable operations will take longer than the bullish market studies and analysts have predicted. Cert + manufacturing challenges are IMMENSE.

The question is whether the forced realism that comes with those challenges & perceived setbacks will spook investors and other stakeholders in a major way that derails progress. Certainly some major vehicle developers will "make it" and some will not.

What impact would it have on momentum if a Joby or Lilium publicly began to manage expectations downward of its aircraft's specs or timeline -- or shut down altogether? We may get the answer to that in the coming years.

Utlimately, I think the #eVTOL industry is very much standing in front of a chasm. Hype alone cannot sustain through it, and reality will set in as some of the companies considered major players fall by the wayside.

There has to be a reckoning between the promise of #eVTOL and the immediate reality. The sector is premised on real technological revolutions that WILL deliver, but the slope of technology S-curves is painfully slow in the early years.

What will define the *end* of the third era of #eVTOL development? An FAA- or EASA-certified vehicle? First urban passenger flights? Or perhaps production rates of an aircraft successfully exceeding anything else currently happening in aerospace? The latter may take 8-10 yrs.

Anyway, that ends my half-baked Sunday thoughts. If you have a radically different view, please comment and let's discuss! I look forward to how poorly my tweets will age..