1/ Advice on finding “the right idea” is often a variant of the tired painkillers vs. vitamins cliche -- focus on a problem you’ve experienced or others are experiencing yada yada
Yet, many impactful ideas were more akin to aesthetics, how founders felt the world should be.
2/ Take compute virtualization. For decades, VMs were an elegant oddity. The VMware team viewed them as the right way to abstract compute but weren't quite sure the killer use case(s). And yet that led to multiple deca-billion dollar markets.
3/ Many platforms and OSes have followed similar paths. They didn’t address a particular burning need now, but if adopted they would change how we did work and thought about work.
I’ll have a go - raw numbers are correlated with turnout, not relative popularity - 94% of democrats voted for Biden and there are 5% more democrats than republicans nationally - the only demographic that voted majority trump is white males (and they only make up 30% of the pop)
- exit polls contradict a number of these claims including LatinX voters outside of Florida and oil-dependent Tx (both that went Trump) - absolute gains for blacks are correlated with record turn out, exits polls show overwhelming backing of Biden
- much of the anomalistic skewing happened during mail ins in an election where the incumbent told his constituency not to trust ballots over mail
1/ Unlike traditional software, margins, scalability, and defensibility for AI companies are usually a function of the problem -- not the technology. And often the problems are ugly.
2/ Many AI problems show long-tailed distributions of input data (meaning most inputs happen infrequently), and supervised learning is not well equipped to handle it.
0/ A very interesting trend to watch is the disappearance of pre-sales, and what it means to GTM tooling. (a thread)
1/ Pre-sales has traditionally been the function that brings a new customer to technical and financial close. Generally it involves an account rep (AE) and a sales engineer (SE) to educate a customer on the product, do technical demos, PoCs, integration etc.
2/ However, with the shift to bottom-up this role is changing. And in some cases going away entirely. This is happening so fast that a surprisingly high portion of new founders don’t even recognize the “pre-sales” / “post-sales” lingo.
0/ There is a dazzling amount of inconsistency in what GTM metrics are presented at board meetings of early stage b2b companies. Here is my hit list of the most important, and why:
1/ CARR - total contracted annual recurring revenue is the single best metric for the health of a business. It encapsulates new logo growth, expansion, and churn in a single number. If you only show one number, use this one.
2/ Live ARR - Some board members prefer LARR to CARR because it can take a long time to implement a deal. And some never make it. Both is best, but for early stage companies I prefer CARR as it signals the market.
0/ Is there an Enterprise Margin Crisis? It's not uncommon to see software startups with surprisingly low margins (30-40%). We believe there is a broader trend going on here, which I explore in this thread.
1/ While not all of these are new, there are a number of macro trends that have downward pressure on margins; the move to cloud, AI/ML, bottoms up GTM etc. Below I outline the most common contributors we see across the industry.
2/ AI can be expensive : Many ML/AI companies will have unique data sets and unique models per customers. This can add a nontrivial compute and data management component per customer dollar spent.