Thread by @adrianzenz

BREAKING: for the 1st time, evidence of systemic forced labor affecting entire cotton production in Xinjiang (20% of world's cotton). Beijing mobilizes over 0.5 million Uyghurs pick to cotton by hand through coercive labor transfer programs. My report: /1
cgpolicy.org/briefs/coerciv…

The key source of coercion is Xinjiang's labor transfer program.

For an overview and conceptual framework of coercive labor and labor transfers in Xinjiang - into which the new evidence fits closely - see my previous research report: jpolrisk.com/beyond-the-cam… /2

Previously, we only had evidence for forced labor in low-skilled manufacturing, incl. textile production, and mostly anecdotal evidence of prison labor etc. in XPCC (bingtuan) cotton picking. U.S. recently banned XPCC cotton, but that is only 1/3 of Xinjiang's cotton. /3

Another 1/3 of Xinjiang's cotton is produced in Uyghur regions in southern XJ, with low mechanization shares. Also, these Uyghur regions produce 99% of top-quality long-staple cotton (very soft). /4

The new evidence:
1. XJ continues to rely strongly on manual picking despite mechanization.
2. Cotton pickers are mobilized through coercive labor transfer / poverty alleviation.
3. Additionally, there is much specific evidence of coercion re transfer of cotton pickers. /5

In 2018, 3 Uyghur regions in XJ alone put approx. 570,000 laborers through labor transfer schemes to pick cotton. This comes despite increasingly mechanized harvesting. Why?

1st: in 2019, 70% of XJ cotton fields were still picked by hand. /6

2nd: Uyghurs are targeted now for cotton picking by the state, and even have come to replace Han Chinese labor migrants. The state wants minorities to pick cotton to achieve poverty alleviation goals and keep them under control. In 2016, Xinjiang had 400,000 Han pickers. /7

3rd: Even the more highly mechanized XPCC regions received 210,000 pickers from Aksu and Hotan alone (2018).
And, while southern XJ got some mechanized picking, they more than doubled their planted cotton area in the past 15 years, requiring high ongoing numbers of pickers. /8

The state is brutally honest about how Han pickers were replaced w/ Uyghurs: village work teams did the job (full quote in screenshot).

Yes, these teams also identify persons for internment, and watch families of detained persons. /9

In one case, locals were “unwilling to go out to work”. Cadres entered every home for a 2nd time and performed “thought education work” until 60 persons were mobilized to pick cotton. Many were elderly, since in Sept 2017 many younger people had been sent to internment camps. /10

There are many other cases. Coercion works not just for recruitment, but also the transfer and on-site worker management. Some accounts speak of cadres being like "security staff", they must "eat, live, study and work" with pickers and carry out ideological education on site. /11

Other accounts note that pickers are checked on by cadres or local police. Numerous reports speak of cadres visiting pickers in fields to check whether their "state of mind" is "stable". /12

Plantation owners are happy. In the past, they needed to tediously recruit workers, which was hard. Cotton picking is grueling and unpopular work. But now, each regional government asks farmers how many workers they will need, mobilizes them & transfers them to the fields. /13

That requires overcoming resistance. As one Uyghur says in a propaganda report: "In the past, my lazy thoughts...were serious. I only knew how to ask for things... Now, I finally understand that the happiest [thing] is to use the money I earn with my hard-working hands..." /14

The implications of all this are sweeping. The new evidence means that all cotton produced in Xinjiang must be considered potentially tainted with forced labor. This affects 20% of the world’s cotton, and some with the best quality. /15

Also, cotton yarn and cloth produced in China (85% made w/ XJ cotton) is exported to numerous other Asian countries w/ large-scale garment production, including Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, etc. (images below are from CSIS). /16

This is the first time I publish with @CGPdc, and I would like their team for a fantastic job in producing such a well-designed report. Also very grateful for the team at @VoCommunism for all their support. /17