In 1997, "The Sovereign Individual" made predictions about the ways in which the internet will radically alter society.
Many of those predictions, including the rise of "cybercash", are playing out before our eyes.
This illustrated thread summarises the book in 12 Tweets.👇
1/ Humans have passed through three societal epochs:
1. Hunter-Gatherer Society 2. Agricultural Society 3. Industrial Society
Now, looming over the horizon, is something entirely new, a fourth age characterised by the rise of the microprocessor: Information Society.
2/ During the industrial era, in order to realise economies of scale, populations clustered around large factories.
Production clustering made it easier for governments to increase taxes on those operating within their territory, allowing the state to grow in size and power.
3/ But the internet, with its ability to transfer information seamlessly across the world, stands to reverse this trend.
People employed in the information economy will be freed from the “Tyranny of Place”, becoming increasingly able to operate from any jurisdiction they like.
4/ At the same time, businesses will be able to draw on a global pool of talent, contracting flexibly across multiple continents.
With employees around the world and agile operations in cyberspace, the value businesses create will be less subject to government capture.
5/ This changing business environment will reduce governments' power to tax income and capital.
Their power of compulsion over money will also weaken.
The rise of digital currencies will cause monetary control to migrate from the halls of power to the global marketplace.
6/ Cybercash will become the dominant medium of exchange for high value transactions.
Its existence is made possible by a mathematical truth: that it is trivial to multiply prime numbers into a larger product, but almost impossible to unravel a product into its simple primes.
7/ The mathematical asymmetry of prime numbers underlies the design of public key-private key encryption technologies.
These technologies will support the architecture of digital money, making it almost impossible to counterfeit, and making monetary receipts verifiably unique.
8/ This poses a further challenge for governments given that inflation of national currencies serves as a major source of their revenue.
The invention of cybercash will allow any individual or firm to easily shift out of any fiat currency that appears in danger of depreciation.
9/ New monetary competition will undermine governments’ ability to expropriate wealth through inflation.
Digital money will return control of the medium of exchange to the owners of wealth, who wish to preserve it, rather than to nation states that wish to spirit it away.
10/ The combination of these factors will diminish the revenue generation power of governments.
Rather than treating their citizens and resident companies like state assets, they will be forced to treat mobile “Sovereign Individuals" and businesses more like valued customers.
11/ This is not to say that states will disappear.
They will still provide services like defense and infrastructure.
However, increasing competition between states will make it harder for them to charge more in taxes than their services are worth to their residents.
12/ We are in the early stages of a social transition.
Transitions are turbulent, but new technological forces will support longer-term human flourishing and limit the role of coercion in human exchange.
Those who understand this will be best placed to adapt to the new reality.
Thank you for reading.
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1/ The roots of the Austrian School can be traced back to its founder Carl Menger, whose 1871 book Principles of Economics provided a new foundation for economic theory and solved the age-old "Paradox of Value".
From Menger's work we can derive 4 pillars of Austrian Investing.
2/ 1: The Subjective Theory of Value recognises that value is not determined by any inherent property of a good, nor by the amount of labor necessary to produce it, but by the importance an acting individual places on it for the achievement of their desired ends.
There is often an overlooked tax story at the heart of humanity’s defining events.
@DominicFrisby's book Daylight Robbery provides a fascinating account of the ways in which tax has shaped our past, and will change our future.
This 15 tweet thread explains.👇
1/ Civilisations tend to ascend at times of limited government, strong property rights and low taxes.
But governments often have short-term incentives to expand.
Since tax rises tend to be strongly resisted by the population, they are often introduced during times of crisis.
2/ When crises occur, new taxes are presented as temporary, but often become permanent e.g.
>British (1842) and US (1861) incomes taxes, still in place today
>The British window tax of 1696 (not repealed until 1851)
>The 1816 Dallas Tariff which remained until the US Civil War.
In "A Masterclass in Economic Calculation" @michael_saylor talks to @PrestonPysh about inflation and why he expects more companies to put bitcoin on their balance sheet.
This 6 tweet thread summarizes Michael's argument.
1/ CPI is losing relevance as a measure of inflation.
Businesses looking to understand how much purchasing power their cash will lose should track M2 money supply growth, which approximates the cost of capital.
While US CPI inflation rose only 0.2% in 2020, M2 soared by 24%.
2/ One reason for the disparity is that key items in the basket of goods that make up the CPI are subject to strong deflationary pressure.
This is especially true for intangible services such as software and digital entertainment where variable costs per unit are low.
Weimar Germany's hyperinflation provides perhaps the most dramatic example of the destruction that ensues when money dies.
This 16 tweet thread summarizes Adam Fergusson's definitive account, and explores the lessons we can learn from this dark period in German history.
1/ During WWI, European powers suspended the gold convertibility of their currencies, issued bonds and printed new bills, as a means of financing their war efforts.
With varying degrees of severity, each introduced price controls in a misguided attempt to suppress inflation.
2/ German price controls were the most stringently enforced in Europe.
At the same time, international isolation forced the government to rely heavily on inflationary domestic bond issuance for their financing.
Economic ruin served as a contributing factor to Germany's defeat.
The manufacture of collectables by pre-historic humans was the first step on the road to creating money.
@NickSzabo4's epic essay "Shelling Out" describes how and why this happened.
This illustrated thread summarises Nick's 12,000 words in 12 Tweets.👇
1/ Most hunter gatherers lived a precarious existence on the brink of starvation.
But we know from archaeological records that they made and collected jewellery.
The fact that early humans devoted their scarce resources to this seemingly frivolous activity merits exploration.
2/ Biologist J. M. Smith drew on game theory to describe the way humans evolve to propagate their genes.
Whilst individual humans might benefit from robbing the weak, cooperative tribes do better overall. Cooperation represents the "Nash Equilibrium" that leads to group survival