If there is indeed an investment treaty between China and EU this month, buckle up for all the media stories on how the Belt and Road will take over the world (after having died last week)
Will be a difficult story for the EU to manage - at exact moment when it also wants to revive the transatlantic link
You may ask how the EU could sign a major international agreement with China during a pandemic that started in China. But that is in a way the point: businesses in Europe are drawing the conclusion that if the Chinese economy is thriving during Covid, then it can’t be avoided
There is still resistance, but obvious that Germany is pushing hard for a deal. Harder than Brexit?
I always made the point that those polls showing growing negative perceptions of China were not the only variable - not even the most important. But opinions in the Council still divided

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More from @MacaesBruno

17 Dec
Difficult to see the EU signing an investment treaty with China if Trump has won the election
Yes, the EU has been interested for a long time and China became more committed to the idea over the last two years. But there was still a lot of trepidation in Europe. Biden was reassuring:
1. Allies will no longer be unilaterally punished for their decisions by Washington. 2. Biden will recover the search for an embedded global order including China. The EU is just contributing to that
(...)
Read 6 tweets
14 Dec
Final comments on @ft China story: 1. Database seriously underestimates loan books. Loans are not transparent and authors have a stringent requirement which will miss a large loan volume. This is not the way to proceed if you’re interested in China’s international position
2. Policy banks are not the crux of the Belt and Road. Much more important to look at commercial banks and FDI. That FDI is at the core of BRI was explicit from the start and only intensified in recent years
3. Infrastructure is only one pillar of BRI and not the most important one. Initiative is fundamentally about industry and technology. Industrial parks, value chains, acquisitions and trade are critical
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
That Boston University study that was quoted by the @ft last week can only be described as a joke. I just spent one hour looking at annual reports and the numbers don’t add up. They seem completely made up
At first glance there is something odd about the database. Ostensibly it’s about biodiversity and indigenous lands. Why are these metrics being used to measure Chinese financial presence?
This @Diplomat_APAC piece explains the problem or at least one of the problems. thediplomat.com/2020/12/chinas…
Read 6 tweets
11 Dec
China pulls back from the world? Pure wishful thinking. I wrote yesterday about how its manufacturing clout has taken quite the boost from Covid
I also wrote last week on how wishful thinking now drives most China analysis
foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/07/bid…
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec
China's foreign trade expanded 7.8 percent year on year in November, official data showed Monday. Exports jumped 14.9 percent year on year while imports dipped 0.8 percent in yuan terms, the General Administration of Customs said. xinhuanet.com/english/2020-1…
That China was able to keep global markets open during geopolitical tensions and a pandemic shows the success of the Belt and Road in my view (that was the prime goal of the initiative as I argue in my book)
In the meantime a current account surplus equivalent to 3% GDP in 2020 is a considerable shock to rest of the world, equivalent to a fiscal contraction in middle of a recession
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec
Finally took a look at this. Find it genuinely awful. Awful on the books it reviews. Awful on the realities of EU politics, awful on the analogies it draws and tedious (too ignorant on the subject to know if awful) on Dutch politics lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/…
Only thing the reviewer genuinely seems to care about - the only thing not merely an occasion for his vanity to shine through - is that Crimea is Russian
I know many people who are vain, but those who are vain of their vanity are a rarer breed
Read 4 tweets

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