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16 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The Fed has updated its plans for bond buying by pledging to continue them until “substantial further progress has been made,” but made no changes to its asset purchases wsj.com/articles/fed-u…
12 of 17 officials see appropriate policy requiring interest rates near zero at least through 2023
Growth and unemployment forecasts for 2020 and 2021 were revised up somewhat, but most officials don't see inflation returning to 2% before 2023
Fed officials: Risks are still to the downside but not as much as they were in March, June or September

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More from @NickTimiraos

Nick Timiraos Profile picture
18 Dec
The Federal Reserve's authority to establish emergency-lending programs has emerged as a late sticking point in negotiations on the latest Covid relief package wsj.com/articles/covid…
Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) wants language included that would bar the Fed from using that authority to start any program "that is similar to any program" established in March and April using funds from the Cares Act
Earlier, he sought to rescind $429 billion in funds Congress approved earlier this year for the Treasury to backstop these programs.

The latest language would go one step further by preventing a future Treasury secretary or Fed chair from starting new programs w/out legislation
Read 13 tweets
Nick Timiraos Profile picture
20 Nov
By asking the Fed to return unused Treasury capital, Mnuchin is effectively preventing the Biden administration from being able to use or revamp central bank loan backstops that were made possible by the bipartisan Cares Act passed in March wsj.com/articles/mnuch…
Could a new Treasury secretary bring these back? The easy answer is yes, it doesn’t take much to start a 13(3) facility.

But what made these facilities special was that Congress had provided a huge slug of funding so the Fed could make riskier investments than it otherwise would
So without the Cares Act funding, the Fed might be reluctant to resume the loan programs unless Treasury can make some new funding available.

This becomes a question of not only what is legally possible but how much political risk is the Fed and Treasury willing to take
Read 7 tweets
Nick Timiraos Profile picture
17 Nov
Judy Shelton failed to secure the votes needed to advance to Senate confirmation on Tuesday due to two absences of Republican senators who are quarantining from the coronavirus wsj.com/articles/judy-…
Tuesday's vote showed there are as many as 50 Republicans who could support Shelton, but only 48 of them were able to vote.

There are as many as 50 senators, including three Republicans, who oppose Shelton. One of them also did not vote Tuesday.
If Rick Scott is able to get back to Washington this week, that would allow McConnell to bring up Shelton's nomination again, with Pence breaking a 49-49 tie.
Read 4 tweets
Nick Timiraos Profile picture
17 Nov
Sen. Grassley says he will quarantine. This means if Rick Scott also stays in quarantine, Shelton will have no more than 48 votes for her cloture vote today. She could still be confirmed if enough Dems are absent. Image
Where things stand at 11 am:

Given the absences of Scott, Grassley and Alexander, Shelton can be confirmed today only if enough Dems (or announced GOP no votes of Romney and Collins) are no shows. There were six Democrats plus Bernie Sanders who did not vote Monday evening.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.): "Every single Democrat will oppose her nomination today." (h/t @lindsaywise)
Read 10 tweets
Nick Timiraos Profile picture
14 Sep
New research from Gilchrist, Wei, Yue and Zakrajšek analyzes the impact the Fed's corporate credit backstop had on funding costs for large companies nber.org/papers/w27809

"The announcement ... influenced credit spreads by significantly reducing near-term default risk."
"The benchmark spread for investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds widened nearly 100 basis points—from already elevated levels—over the few days after [the announcement of the CPFF and MMLF] while the corresponding spread for high-yield bonds jumped 180 bps over the same period."
After the announcement of the corporate lending backstop, bonds below the five-year maturity cutoff experience a drop in credit spreads of 70 basis points, relative to investment-grade bonds above the five-year maturity cutoff, during the post-announcement period.
Read 8 tweets
Nick Timiraos Profile picture
5 Sep
Congress appropriated $500 billion to the Treasury under the Cares Act. $454 billion is to cover losses on Fed lending programs and the other $46 billion for airlines or businesses critical to national security 1/
Treasury committed $195 billion of the former slug of equity but hasn’t allocated the other $259 billion wsj.com/articles/454-b…
Of the second slug (the $46 billion) $17 billion must go to companies critical to national security. Of that, Treasury has made one $700 million loan, making for $16.3 billion that hasn’t been committed in addition to the $259 billion toomey.senate.gov/files/document…
Read 4 tweets

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