“For all the euphoria that rightly greeted Chinese President Xi Jinping’s announcement in September of a peak in carbon emissions by 2030 and a decline to net zero by 2060, the promise of that declaration is at risk,” @davidfickling writes (1/x). bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
“To see why, consider Xi’s follow-up speech to the international Climate Ambition Summit on Dec. 12. While reiterating his earlier promises, it fell short on the most important point: How much China is prepared to spend decarbonizing its power system.”
“The installed capacity of solar and wind power will rise to at least 1,200 gigawatts by 2030, he said, compared to 440GW at present. That represents pedestrian growth of around 76GW a year, roughly in line with installations during 2018.”
“The 2018 number was, to be sure, a record at the time, and China is by far the biggest developer of renewable power anywhere. Still, the planned pace is well below expectations of around 115GW a year from China’s solar and wind industry bodies...”
“...not to mention levels as high as 160GW that some analysts have expected to see in the 14th Five-Year Plan released next March.”
“If China hits its economic targets, that slow pace of deployment all but guarantees that emissions from fossil power plants will continue to grow.”
“There’s no need for such timidity. Nearly all new wind and solar projects in China already provide cheaper power than new coal generation, and about half would be cheaper than keeping existing coal and gas plants running.”
“Even if China ends up exceeding the 1,200GW number, by lowballing his renewables ambitions Xi is sending a message that the country is ready to take a fiscal and productivity hit — as well as harming the health of its citizens, and the planet’s climate...”
“...if it helps prop up smokestack industries that would be threatened by a faster move toward zero.”
“Beijing’s view of decarbonization looks like St. Augustine’s view of chastity: It wants to be pure, just not yet. The trouble is, if it doesn't move fast, it may be too late — both for China and the planet.”
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