Thread by @zeneraalstuff

MGR at the elections. An analysis. Thread coming up.
MGR led the AIADMK to 3 successive election victories. The first was in 1977, right after the Emergency. This was a 4 cornered contest. The alliances were
1) AIADMK + CPI(M) + Forward Bloc
2) DMK
3) Congress _ CPI
4) Janata /1

Results
1 - 144 (130 ADMK, 12 CPIM, 1 FBL, 1 IND)
2 - 48
3 - 32 (INC 27, CPI 5)
4 - 10
Vote share
1 - 33.5% ( ADMK - 30%, CPIM 2.8%)
2 - 24.9%
3 - 20.4%
4 - 16.7%
MGR was initially supportive of the Emergency, while DMK strongly opposed it. DMK could not create a pre-poll /2

alliance with Janata. If they had, they would come back to power. There was no strong anti-Congress wave in TN after the Emergency. Also, Swatantra and the Congress (O) were defunct after the demise of Rajaji and Kamaraj, so there was no means for either of MGR or MK to /3

cobble together a sweeping alliance. If either of Congress or the Janata had teamed up with either of AIADMK or DMK, they would have swept the polls. Reasons
Possibility 1 - Neither MGR nor MK had the expertise to stitch an alliance through negotiation at the time /4

Possibility 2 - MGR and MK were playing 4-dimensional chess and tacitly used this opportunity to sideline national parties in TN. We will rule out Possibility 2 based on the events in the 1980 Assembly election /5

ADMK won in 63 constituencies with DMK as the runner-up. The margin of victory was more than 10,000 votes in half the cases.
DMK won in 27 constituencies with AIADMK as the runner-up. The margin of votes was 2000 or less in 8 of those.
ADMK won in 25 seats with Janata /6

as the runner-up. The margin of votes was < 5000 in 10 of those cases. In the case of DMK/Janata alliance, those would have gone to DMK.
Except for 1 Janata won in most constituencies on a thin margin. A DMK alliance would have ensured all 8 came to the alliance. Also, the /7

Janata-INC head-on contest would have ensured at least 18 seats to the DMK alliance that had < 5000 margin, making a tally of 84 seats at the bare minimum. It was more of MK's failure than MGR's win. The 1980 election is a much more interesting story /8

The Congress and DMK allied in 1980 LS elections to a thumping 38/40-seat victory. The Congress and DMK both had clean vote shares at the time. So, MGR's Govt was dismissed and snap polls called. This resulted in a landslide win for MGR 162/234. /9

MGR was really on a sticky wicket in 1980. Farmers protesting for free electricity under Narayanaswamy Naidu had been fired upon by police and 8 protestors died. Also, MGR introduced a 'creamy layer' for BC quotas, which he withdrew after the LS poll debacle /10

In 1980, AIADMK + CPI + CPIM+ FBL + breakaway Cong factions won162 seats and got 48.9% of the vote. ADMK only got 38%.
DMK + Cong(I) won 69 seats and won 44.4% of the vote.
DMK had 22% of the vote while Cong (I) had 21%. On the face of it, it looks as though MGR increased /11

vote share, DMK & Cong(I) held vote share at Janata's expense.
However, there is a little hidden factor that @sridharkswamy pointed out - Cong(I) stood in 114 seats while DMK stood in 112 seats. MK was ready to let Cong(I) be the major partner, one wonders if he was even /12

ready to let Moopanar be the CM. The sympathy wave for MGR worked probably in all seats where Cong(I) was the main opponent. If MK had not lost out in seat sharing, he could have used the negative sentiment against MGR to win at the polls. This was one more election /13

that MK handed over through poor alliance management. A man like MK must have been scarred by these two opportunities that he let go. It changed him, made him humble, but also sharpened his ambition and made it an obsession. The same obsessive competition was something he /14

carried over into his duel with Jayalalitha that lasted more than a quarter century.
The 1984 election was a nation-wide sympathy landslide. At this time, MGR was in alliance with Rajiv Gandhi's Cong(I) while DMK was stuck with the Janata - a spent force that had only /15

2.8% vote share even in 1980. That was his last election. /END