I've seen a lot of people angry about this, but this sort of thing is inevitable. You have to give people notice about lockdowns and transport closures; if you don't, you strand people (which can promote viral spread). If you do, this bunching happens.
And I do ask the people who are furious about this: Are you proposing gunning them down? Because that's about the only way you could alter these inevitable crowd dynamics. People will want to go where they feel safest--rationally or irrationally.
From a policy perspective, the best thing to do is to account for the inevitability. But you can't avoid it; it's a natural human response to what is, always, a frightening announcement. dw.com/en/coronavirus…
This, by the way, is the reason curfews are a terrible idea from a pandemic control perspective. They bunch people up at the beginning and end of the curfew. Not exactly great for social distancing.
With a lockdown, the benefits dramatically outweigh that cost, of course. You get viral spread from bunching, but the lockdown suppresses far more over time. Still, if you act shocked that people are scrambling to catch the last plane/train I don't know what to tell you.
And this is quite right too. The shorter notice your announcement, the more panic you create, the larger crowds you get. See what happened in India ahead of its first national shutdown.

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More from @Quinnae_Moon

20 Dec
Imagine, if you will, a world where seatbelts did *not* come standard in every motor vehicle, where they were largely unregulated, there was a run on them leading to hiked prices, and everyone was suddenly asked to get one at once. You might see some gaps in compliance.
This is, and always has been, the problem with this argument. Instead of calling for police intervention, masks should be free, widely-available, and handed out at every opportunity. In front of stores, at bus stops and railway stations...
I've said it a thousand times already, but the way this pandemic has made nominal progressives clamour for cops, violence, and punishment is *deeply* alarming. In part because this is a crisis that should cater to the strengths of liberal and leftist policy alike.
Read 6 tweets
9 Dec
Another point that I neglected to emphasise in my thread last night: hard as it is for a lot of folks on here to process, most people who are flouting public health advice are generally doing so in good faith. And there's been no effective response to that.
What I mean by that is that they either don't realise they're flouting anything *at all*, that they have misjudged their personal risk, that they're working on incomplete, or out of date information, and/or that they have misplaced their trust in certain authority figures.
This is even before you get to all the cognitive biases that make us poor judges of risk against an invisible threat in the *first place.* (Just another reason in a very long list of why this can't be left to individual initiative).
Read 9 tweets
8 Dec
Also, as a coda to this thread: I'm not advocating for cynicism here. This isn't because people are "bad" or inherently selfish or whatever. Speaking sociologically, there's a much bigger picture here.
Most people, even people who are well-educated, are not going to be 'high-information' citizens when it comes to an invisible, fast moving crisis with an ever-evolving set of facts. Read the intro to this Atlantic piece about COVID messaging: Image
"If indoor dining couldn’t be made safe, he wondered, why were people being encouraged to do it?"

(Amanda Mull knocks it out of the park, as ever).

theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Read 7 tweets
8 Dec
There's no question that our nation is despairing over COVID-19. It feels like people have given up, or are heedlessly killing each other with this virus. That, if only we were better, kinder people, we could unite *without the government* and conquer this dread disease.
It's a wonderful film plot, but it's just not how these things work. You, as an individual, can and *must* mask up, socially distance, avoid indoor gatherings, non-essential travel, etc. You cannot develop a test-and-trace regime, or a managed isolation scheme.
You cannot close shopping centres or bars. You cannot retrofit buildings to be less hospitable to airborne diseases. You cannot manage the supply chain of PPE or medicine, nor administer the creation and safety trials of new drugs.
Read 13 tweets
18 Nov
This is why I so insistently rail against individualist perspectives on the pandemic.

The problem with that mentality comes into sharp focus when you see cruel statements like this from a politician clearly trying to avoid responsibility.
The denialist maniacs get a lot of attention, but the real reason the US is mired in COVID is because politicians have lacked the will to do what needs to be done: pay people to stay home. The problem is *much* bigger than individual virtue.
The purpose of the "personal responsibility" rhetoric, whether it's coming from liberal or conservative politicians, is to ensure that governments can blame *you* for *their* failures on COVID-19.
Read 5 tweets
18 Nov
The election should remind us that the US has set a weird ticking time bomb by having political parties and partisan operatives so intimately involved in decisions they have a vested interest in--certifying elections, determining legislative district boundaries, etc.
It's extremely dangerous. It's not how it's done in other democracies (non-partisan commissions/agencies handle such things). It's a vehicle for legalised racism and disenfranchisement. And it's coming home to roost right now.
Even if GOP attempts to steal this election are half-hearted, incompetent, pantomime, doomed to failure, etc., it unnecessarily stresses our democracy to allow things to be set up in this way. It's extremely dangerous.
Read 4 tweets

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