Anp🅰️nman Profile picture
Dec 21, 2020 25 tweets 11 min read Read on X
1/ $NPA merger w/ @AST_SpaceMobile: Invest in the Space Mobile Provider that Will Disrupt the Entire Wireless Industry.

A Different Perspective on What's Really at Stake. Thread Below. @jimcramer @ARKInvest @DJohnson_CPA @Mindwalletbody @SpacGuru @SpacBobby @JMacInvesting
2/ SpaceMobile ($NPA) has created the first and only patented protected, space-based cellular broadband network that can provide coverage across the entire globe.

Service is compatible with all +5B mobile phones in use today featuring 4G & 5G data speeds with low latency. Image
3/ Carriers that work with SpaceMobile will enjoy absolute and unparalleled cell coverage - a game changing advantage that will redefine the competitive landscape. Image
4/ SpaceMobile's technology has been validated through the successful launch and service test with BlueWalker-1 satellite in 2019. +$100M capital raised from strategic investors including Vodafone, Rakuten, Samsung, and American Tower. Image
5/ Another $230M in new private funding round led by the same strategic investors at $10 per share, in addition to +$232M in SPAC funding gives SpaceMobile over $420 net cash to fully fund Phase 1 launch in 2022. Image
6/ Binding, mutually exclusive commercial agreements covering +$1.3B subscribers in place with Vodafone, AT&T, Telefonica, Indosat, Telecom Argentina, Telstra, Tigo, and Liberty LatAm. Image
7/ SpaceMobile has built an insurmountable competitive advantage w/ +750 patent claims, 161 space scientists & engineers w/ 40 prior satellite builds/launches.

Industry-leading strategic partners/investors with deep tech moat and customer base. Image
8/ Launch of 20 satellites in 2022 w/ commercial service beginning in 2023. Phase 1 cash flow will support Phase 2, Phase 3 and Phase 4 launches. Image
9/ SpaceMobile will be the kingmaker in the wireless market, creating clear winners (its partners) and losers.

SpaceMobile signed mutually exclusive contracts with marquee Wireless Carriers in select regions to get scale and demonstrate its business model.
10/ SpaceMobile could auction off partnerships to single Wireless Carrier in each region which could generate more attractive economics.

Partners that SpaceMobile chooses to work with will drive substantial CapEx savings by reducing the need to buildout spectrum for coverage.
11/ The competitive landscape in the US Wireless market may be forever changed by SpaceMobile.

If AT&T offers customers 100% 5G Global Coverage, how can Verizon & T-Mobile compete? Image
12/ How will Verizon keep its premium pricing by advertising "America's 2nd best network for coverage"?

Coverage and reliability are the lifeblood of Wireless Carriers. Image
13/ Verizon and T-Mobile already feel pressure and are actively voicing concern and opposition to the FCC claiming that SpaceMobile's satellites may interfere with their networks.

tinyurl.com/yaldccd7
14/ With enterprise values of $381B for Verizon and $260B for T-Mobile, there's a lot of value to protect!

AT&T also had much to lose - it committed to US Gov to build FirstNet, the US public safety network for disasters.

SpaceMobile could eliminate the need for FirstNet.
15/ BTW: American Tower, the largest cell tower co. in the world at $129B EV, is increasing its investment through the $230M PIPE at $10/share.

This is a hedge for the AMT because SpaceMobile's tech could be an existential threat to cell tower industry. Image
16/ Partnering with Wireless Carriers through 50/50 rev share model provides immediate access to customers and removes need for marketing, customer acquisition or backhaul costs.

SpaceMobile projects 9M subs in 2023 growing to 373M in 2027 (153% CAGR) Image
17/ 2027 projections represent under 30% of current potential subscriber base.

Revenue projected to grow rapidly from $181M in 2023 to $9.6B in 2027 (170% CAGR) with modest global ARPU assumption of $2.15 by 2027.
18/ Significant operating leverage will accelerate profitability once satellite constellation is launched & operational.

+$1B EBITDA by 2024, only 1 year into commercial service.

EBITDA margins to expand rapidly and reach +90% in steady state. Image
19/ $16.3B of unlevered free cashflow by 2030, leaving capital for reinvestments and R&D to expand service and extend market leadership.

SpaceMobile could institute a sizeable dividend comfortably beginning in 2024. Image
20/ At $11/share, SpaceMobile is valued at 1.6x 2024E EBITDA compared to (updated as of 12/18):

Growth Space Companies: Iridium 13.5x, Virgin Galactic 26x, Momentus 4.7x

US Wireless Carriers: AT&T 7.1x, T-Mobile 8.3x, Verizon 7.5x Image
21/ Using 4.3x to 7.2x 2024E EBITDA, SpaceMobile would be valued at $25-$40 per share, a conservative estimate based on low-growth carriers.
22/ Highly attractive risk/reward at $11 -> risking 90c to potentially make $14-$29.

NPA has a downside floor of $10.10 in cash NAV up until the merger closes.

The deal will likely close in late February to early March 2021.
23/ Stock supply dynamics: post merger 180-day lockup for sponsor, existing SpaceMobile shareholders subject to 12-month lock-up, employee stock options subject to 2-year lock-up, $230M PIPE anchored by long-term strategic investors subject to S-1 registration process
25/ One more thing on $NPA, some have raised NASA's concern about SpaceMobile's tech. However this past November NASA went back on its concerns and is collaborating with SpaceMobile to enable safe operations and promote mutual success: lightreading.com/iot/policymake…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Anp🅰️nman

Anp🅰️nman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @spacanpanman

Aug 3
$ASTS: American Tower is an investor and sits on the board of AST SpaceMobile. The most cost effective way to connect people in the developing world is for AST to light up unused terrestrial spectrum from space. $AMT saw the future and has agmt with AST to provide the gateway infrastructure. They certainly will be making “adjustments” to their expansion strategy. The signs are all there folks.
2/ $ASTS: A few comments from $AMT back in May 2023 at the MoffettNathanson TMT Conference. Head of IR Adam Smith had to be careful in answering this question given the potential risk of cannibalization of the core business. Image
3/ $ASTS: $AMT highlighting their investment in AST and deployment of infrastructure at 10 different sites in 2022. Would be interesting to know how many AST support sites are up and running now globally? Image
Read 5 tweets
May 16, 2023
1/ $ASTS Q1 2023 Update: First how crazy is it America's top MNO @ATT ($300BN EV) views its work with AST as a major historic milestone in achieving the first 2-way voice call over cellular spectrum with an unmodified mobile phone. Hard Launch imminent? 🤯
#5GSpace #D2D #spacemob Image
@ATT 2/ $ASTS added 5 more MNOs bringing the total to 40 globally representing well over 2 billion potential customers for service. These sophisticated MNOs are undertaking their own due diligence and are choosing AST over other potential competitors like Lynk and Starlink. Image
@ATT 3/ $ASTS Abel confirmed testing has validated the entire architecture and no major changes to the design of Block 1 BlueBirds. It appears they've successfully achieved 3G connectivity and have the signal strength required to test and validate 4G/5G speeds (more on that later). Image
Read 18 tweets
Apr 3, 2023
1/ $ASTS: Q4 2022 Update: Negative stock price reaction unf drove the narrative Friday. After digging into the Q4 call and transcript in detail, here are some thoughts:
2/ First, let's discuss the negatives. (1) Testing is taking longer than expected. Initially the co gave guidance of T+6 mos and then Q1. It's important to understand that testing is an ongoing process and will continue throughout the life of BlueWalker-3.
3/ However, mkt expectations were very high to receive some type of speed test data and/or first call to occur prior to 3/31, especially after a big marketing push by AT&T indicating perhaps something was close?

Appreciate the love, but let's wait until the time is right!
Read 22 tweets
Feb 6, 2023
1/ $ASTS: @ast_spacemobile and strategic partner @ATT are working together to deliver next generation satcomm solutions to the US armed forces. Let's recap the last few days of activity and assemble the pieces of the mosaic. Image
2/ $ASTS: On 1/31, AT&T's Defense Business Lead, posts details on how AST+AT&T are working to provide the Department of Defense w/ seamless and reliable terrestrial + space-based mobile network. READ EVERY SINGLE WORD. Image
3/ $ASTS: Probably more important than the post itself are some of the AT&T executives who reposted, commented or were tagged. Reading through these titles will give you a sense of how important AST+AT&T work is for the DoD. It's eye opening.👀 Image
Read 13 tweets
Oct 6, 2022
1/ $ASTS THIS IS IT. AT&T, known for being conservative (Ma Bell upbringing?), has thrown down the gauntlet. CEO John Stankey is on a mission to educate everyone that AT&T and AST will be the only provider of broadband to unmodified mobile phones.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ $ASTS The Bloomberg article follows Stankey's September Barron's interview where he highlights @AST_SpaceMobile as a superior service.

HEY THIS SATELLITE TO PHONE SERVICE SEEMS IMPORTANT TO AT&T?!? 🤔

barrons.com/articles/att-c…
3/ $ASTS So let's look at the latest article:
First, HEY Elon and Mike stop w/ the bullshit claims you were first to develop a service that AT&T and @AST_SpaceMobile have been working on since 2020. Oh and btw we're targeting broadband, not limited messaging services.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 29, 2022
$FAZE heads up to anyone in this name. A fourth S-1/A was filed today 9/29, just 2 days after third amendment on 9/27. The S-1 is about to go effective which will allow 10M shares to be freely tradable.
2/ $FAZE $71.4M of PIPE investors defaulted on their commitment, forcing B Riley / $RILY to fund its PIPE backstop. B Riley now holds 7.5M shares along w/ 2.5M held by outside PIPE investors vs. 1.3M float. $RILY risk managers are going to want this off the books ASAP.
3/ $FAZE Imagine this is what B Riley senior management meeting w/ risk department looks like as the S-1 is about to go effective and they look to unload $75M of exposure.
youtube.com/clip/UgkxZaNdq…
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(