Thread by @PMatzko

How to Pull Off a Coup; or, at least, How to Do it Better than Donald Trump.

Trump’s half-assed attempts at using bogus claims of election fraud in order to *himself* commit election fraud are doomed. But... 1/

...it’s worth considering how easy it would have been for a somewhat more competent wannabe authoritarian to steal the 2020 election. But consider this not just a “what might have been” scenario but also a “what could be” situation at some point in the future. 2/

Here’s how you’d do it:

First, follow Trump’s own pre-election strategy of spreading doubt about the upcoming outcome. It’s important to convince enough of your supporters that any election outcome other than your own victory is ipso facto evidence of a stolen election. 3/

Your coup is more likely to succeed if you convince a critical mass of people that *it* is a legitimate act in opposition to a sinister, anti-democratic conspiracy. Trump made it a standard part of his stump speech in early 2020. 4/

nymag.com/intelligencer/…

Second, encourage your state-level apparatchiks to suppress voter turnout. This is, again, exactly what multiple Republican-controlled state legislatures have done for the past several election cycles. 5/

Whether by restricting early voting, imposing stricter voter id laws, or closing polling locations, there are many ways to hinder opposition voters. This might just win you the election outright & obviate the need for a formal coup—it’s a kind of preemptive coup, if you will. 6/

But even if you don’t win as a result, the closer the final vote tally, the less heavy lifting you’ll have to do when it comes time to claim that the coup is a legitimate expression of the actual will of the people. 7/ brennancenter.org/our-work/resea…

Third, game the process to give the appearance of a victory. Again, your coup needs buy in from a critical mass of people; simply claim victory at the optimal moment in the count—whenever that may be & transitory as it may be—to persuade your supporters that it was stolen. 8/

You need those supporters riled up enough to place pressure on sympathetic apparatchiks in order to convince them that the coup is likely to succeed and thus worth putting their own political careers on the line for. 9/

And this is just what Trump attempted in 2020, discouraging his voters from voting by mail—often to the frustration of his own campaign staff—and thus creating a “red mirage” on the night of the election. 10/ theguardian.com/us-news/2020/o…

As a bonus, when handled properly this also provides another avenue for voter suppression, giving you a shot at getting some of those mail-in ballots thrown out via legal challenges. 11/

Fourth, encourage paramilitary allies to sow chaos & confusion, especially in places that are opposition strongholds. Of course, provide yourself a little plausible deniability—maybe tell them to “stand by” or something similar with a wink and a nod. 12/

The resulting violence will provide a pretext to send in federal forces to “monitor” the election. If nothing else, stationing armored vehicles and troops outside polling stations should depress voter turnout in those locations where the demographics favor your opponent. 13/

Fifth, you can then claim that these same areas had a tainted vote tabulation process. Having evidence of that is purely optional. Feel free to launch legal challenges, but don’t put all your eggs in that basket. 14/

Remember, possession is 9/10ths of the law. Say that the voting machines were rigged and then seize them so you can futz with the results yourself. After all, the Department of Homeland Security declared that these machines were “critical infrastructure” in January 2017. 15/

It’s only a hop, skip, and a jump from there to a justification for federal seizure of the machines. And you can always *say* that you’re doing it to protect the integrity of the election. 16/ fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/I…

Sixth, on the theme of Homeland Security, bonus points if you can have a sympathetic foreign government help you manufacture a justification for your coup. Turn a blind eye to the likelihood of a foreign intelligence service attempting to tinker with the election. 17/

Bonus points if they use those tools to *help you* while you simultaneously claim that they actually did so to aid your opponent. You have the bully pulpit & regime-supporting propaganda organs to boost your claims; your opponent doesn’t. 18/
cnn.com/2020/12/19/pol…

Seventh, don’t worry about the military. You don’t need them to join the coup; you just need them to do nothing to stop the coup. There are 132,000 armed federal agents—2,500 added every year since 9/11—who don’t have the military’s tradition of non-intervention in politics. 19/

These agents also work for your appointees, many of whom are “acting” officials who did not require Congressional confirmation. And remember that you rustled up 1000s of Bureau of Prisons personnel to suppress anti-regime protests in the capital just a few months back. 20/

So surely you can find a few 1000s more willing to swarm a state and seize ballot boxes. 21/

politico.com/news/magazine/…

Eighth, let’s assume that the election comes down to just one, battleground state. (The fewer contested states there are, the better are your odds of succeeding.) You have the machines in hand. There are federal personnel on the ground “protecting” the election. 22/

Your supporters believe you when you say that the other side was trying to steal the election from you. Now the final step is to lean on sympathetic state officials to go along with the plan; all the better if your party dominates the gubernatorial mansion or the legislature. 23/

Now lobby the governor & legislative leaders, asking them to send a second slate of electors or even just for time for a federal investigation into election fraud—run by a loyal official, of course—before certifying the vote. 24/ cnn.com/2020/12/05/pol…

If you’ve done everything correctly up to this point, they'll accede and you should be able to complete your coup without a shot fired. This is how American democracy dies. And in the hands of a more competent authoritarian, something like it could’ve happened in 2020. /fin