22 Dec, 14 tweets, 4 min read
1. Many people are saying they will not spend Christmas with family because it "just isn't worth the risk".
But how likely is it, given everything we now know, that a person without symptoms will pass the virus to somebody else, with fatal consequences?
2. First of all, given that you have no symptoms, what are the chances that you are infected with Sars CoV-2? The ONS estimates this to be 1 in 115, or 0.87%
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
3. Now, imagining you are infected, but you don’t have any symptoms, what is the probability that you will infect somebody else with Sars CoV-2? Recent studies show this is around 0.7%
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
4. If we multiply the probability of these two events, we can calculate the likelihood of you a) being infected & b) passing that infection on without symptoms. This gives a figure of 0.006%
5. To put that figure in context, it’s roughly the same as your chance of dying in a car crash over the course of any given year.

bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/tra…
6. But if you infect someone, this doesn’t mean that they are going to end up dying of Covid pneumonia. Far from it, in fact. There is a lot of debate regarding the IFR of Sars CoV-2, but the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine puts it at roughly 0.5%.
cebm.net/covid-19/estim…
7. Now, if we multiply the chance of infecting another person (without symptoms) by the fatality rate, we can estimate that the risk of “killing” one of your relatives is roughly 0.00003%, or 1 in 3 million.
8. Obviously there are a lot of caveats. If one of your relatives is very old and very ill, then the IFR is going to be higher. If they are relatively healthy, it’s going to be lower.
9. But there’s another caveat. PCR tests. The first number we used (the number of infected individuals in the UK) is based on positive PCR results. It is possible that only 3% of these positive results are accurate.
10. Which means that the risk of a person “killing” a relative without any discernible coronavirus symptoms may well be as low as 1 in 30 million – the same sort of likelihood of you winning the National Lottery.
11. Clearly, it is for individuals to assess risks for themselves and make decisions accordingly. But they should do so in the knowledge of how big those risks actually are. And nobody should be calling others "irresponsible" for taking a risk this minuscule.
12. Finally, this risk isn't just the justification for 'cancelling Christmas', it's the justification for all of it. Lockdowns, masks, school closures, undiagnosed cancers, suicides, stillbirths, unemployment. All done because we were told this specific risk was just too high.
Important to point out that this does not mean nobody is likely to get infected with Sars-CoV-2 and then die from 'Covid' pneumonia.
It means that if that does happen, it is ridiculously unlikely that it happens in this specific way.
And what THAT means is there was never any...
reason why the government couldn't have just said to the general public, "If you feel unwell, stay at home. Everyone else, carry on with life as normal." And then spent some time on making hospitals and care homes a bit safer.

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# More from @bobscartoons

20 Dec
Some new pencil sketches available on my website: bobmoran.co.uk
20 Dec
2. First of all, given that you have no symptoms, what are the chances that you are infected with Sars CoV-2? The ONS estimates this to be 1 in 115, or 0.87%
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
3. Now, imagining you are infected, but you don’t have any symptoms, what is the probability that you will infect somebody else with Sars CoV-2? Recent studies show this is around 0.7%
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
4. If we multiply the probability of these two events, we can calculate the likelihood of you a) being infected & b) passing that infection on without symptoms. This gives a figure of 0.006%
19 Dec
I have sold a lot of original artwork this year and I'm very grateful and flattered that people want my work on their walls. There are still quite a few available to buy on my website: bobmoran.co.uk
Here is a thread of some of them...
Original for sale here: bobmoran.co.uk
Original for sale here: bobmoran.co.uk
13 Dec
Those of us who are opposed to lockdowns, masks, tiers etc are often labelled conspiracy theorists, deniers and nutcases. The truth is, in order to believe that lockdowns are having any positive effect, you need to believe a whole range of completely mad things. Here are just 2:
1. That the virus was in the UK in November 2019 - this has been confirmed - and had already spread around the country and was killing people. BUT it stopped. It decided to wait. Even though Christmas was happening and families were travelling all over the country hugging and
kissing, the virus said, "No. Hold on. Stop killing people. Stop spreading. We haven't even been given a name yet. Let's wait until the world leaders start announcing us on the news and putting measures in place to 'control' us and THEN.. then we'll really get to work."
9 Dec
We're not doing any of this because a lot of people were going to catch a cold. We're not destroying our economies and societies because a tiny number of people felt tired for a few months after a cough. We aren't allowing babies and children to die because a new strain
of coronavirus is at large. We were told, in no uncertain terms, that this new virus CAUSES a brand new, deadly disease called Covid-19, the like of which we had never seen before. A disease so horrific that doctors were having emotional breakdowns after treating it. That is what
all of this is based on. The reasoning behind a global reaction which may well lead to the permanent destruction of all the things that make life a worthwhile experience.
In nine months of being immersed in this swamp of information, I have still not found an explanation of what
8 Dec
I'm extremely grateful for all the support I'm receiving regarding my being excluded from taking part in this year's cartoon awards. I think it's important that people understand the situation so I will try to explain...
Firstly, @EllwoodAtfield have sponsored the event for several years now and have transformed it into quite a grand affair. However, they do not have any involvement in which cartoonists are included or how the awards are decided. All of that is controlled by one man, Tim Benson.
Benson, @Cartoon4sale, runs the Political Cartoon Gallery in Putney and started these awards many years ago. I have known him for more than ten years. A lot of people find him extremely difficult and I have often found myself defending him to others in the past. We always seemed