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Andrew Prokop Profile picture
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22 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Democrats are still overperforming in the Senate.

They hold 3 seats in Trump '16-'20 states (Manchin, Tester, Brown). Rs hold 1 seat that voted D in both years (Collins).

Also, there are 10 seats in Trump '16-Biden '20 states. Ds hold 6, Rs 2, other 2 are TBD in Georgia.
In 2016 Trump won 30 states despite losing the popular vote by 2. That has terrifying Senate implications for Ds (if Rs won both seats in all those states, they'd have 60 seats!).

But 2018 saw wins from Manchin, Tester, Brown, Sinema, Casey, Baldwin, Stabenow in Trump '16 states
Re: the map — presidential results:

2012: D+3.9 popular vote, Ds win 26 states
2016: D+2.1 popular vote, Rs win 30 states
2020: D+4.4 popular vote, Ds win 25 states

Perhaps the even better example is when Obama won the popular vote by 7.2 percentage points in 2008 (biggest victory for either party in the 2000s) and won... fewer states than Trump did when he *lost* the popular vote in 2016.

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More from @awprokop

Andrew Prokop Profile picture
17 Dec
Book recommendation thread! Some I read for the first time this year and really enjoyed…

First off, Brenda Wineapple’s THE IMPEACHERS was a fascinating close look at Andrew Johnson's impeachment. Rich with detail and a bona fide page-turner.
THE COWSHED by Ji Xianlin and CHINA UNDER MAO by Andrew Walder. Micro and macro looks at the Cultural Revolution. Get past facile analogies, learn about the reality. (First is a vivid personal tale, second is an academic accounting)
THE AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF MALCOLM X and Audre Lorde’s ZAMI: A NEW SPELLING OF MY NAME both use autobiography to make deeply compelling critiques of society. They also don’t shy away from the complications real life holds for ideology.
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
15 Dec
Re: the Hunter investigation specifically there are two things that happened before the election.

1) A DOJ official told Sinclair Broadcast Group that Hunter was actively under investigation (cont'd)
2.) After Tony Bobulinski went public, FBI agents interviewed him right away (rather than waiting till after the election). Naturally, news of the interview immediately went public.

Maybe a defensible call, but at least raises an eyebrow
Overall this at least complicates the "Barr successfully kept it all secret" narrative, even though neither late October story got much play in mainstream outlets

abc3340.com/news/nation-wo…
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
8 Dec
Judge Emmet Sullivan has dismissed the case against Flynn, due to his pardon
Sullivan points out Flynn's pardon is "extraordinarily broad," but says he only needs to consider the part of it that covers the charge Flynn pleaded guilty to
Sullivan wants to emphasize that the pardon does not mean Flynn has been shown to be "innocent"
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
6 Dec
I'm honestly curious, given the existence of primaries and beliefs among the GOP electorate, about why Kemp, Ducey, Raffensperger, MI/PA/WI legislative leaders *haven’t* gone full MAGA and tried to overturn the results.

Respect for facts and the law? Goodness of their hearts?
What we’ve seen over the past month is that lots of Rs have been willing to *rhetorically* back Trump’s “stolen election” lies and to urge *other* Republicans to do something about it. But almost no R in a position of power to do something has actually done so.
The main exceptions here were the Wayne County canvassers who quickly caved and the one MI state board of canvassers holdout who ultimately didn't matter. But other than that, no one in a position of authority was really willing to push the limits for Trump.
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
4 Dec
Harsh sentencing memo from Durham asks for prison time for former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith (who pleaded guilty to altering an email).

Asserts his political or personal bias may have played a role (though admits "impossible to know with certainty")

courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco… ImageImage
Conservatives had hoped that Clinesmith would "flip" and reveal misconduct from others. No sign he did so in this sentencing memo. Says he spoke about his other FISA applications but does not mention providing any useful information that should mitigate sentence Image
Strong case from @emptywheel that Durham's speculation that political bias might have played a role in Clinesmith's offense is inappropriate. He admits he can't prove it, just asserts it's "plausible"

emptywheel.net/2020/12/04/the…

Read 4 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
1 Dec
Some short last names redacted here in the court document describing a "bribery-for-pardon" scheme involving an attorney dcd.uscourts.gov/sites/dcd/file…
The bribery-for-pardon scheme appears to be about someone who's already in Bureau of Prisons custody
This part says the clemency request involved “past substantial campaign contributions” and “anticipated future substantial political contributions”
Read 4 tweets

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