Thread by @_whitneywebb

NEW - The source behind the claim that a new COVID-19 strain in the UK is 70% more transmissible, Dr. Erik Volz, admits that the model that produced that statistic is flawed and that it is “too early to tell” if the strain is more easily spread.

thelastamericanvagabond.com/flawed-data-mo…

Volz's 10 minute presentation on Friday was the basis for the 70% transmissibility claim. In that presentation, he says the model for the new strain AND the model for the previous strain he is comparing it to are both flawed.

Boris Johnson also cited last Friday's NERVTAG meeting to justify higher transmissibility claims re: new strain, but NERVTAG's meeting minutes show that a majority of its members opposed taking immediate action via lockdowns and wanted more data before acting.

The NERVTAG majority was overruled by a "vocal minority" led by Imperial College's Neil Ferguson and Wendy Barclay (Volz is also Imperial College). Ferguson and Barclay are now claiming children are more susceptible to the new strain, but acknowledge they have no evidence.

Ferguson has a history of producing and promoting flawed disease models, including the model used earlier this year to justify earlier UK lockdowns. He was later caught breaking the rules of the very lockdown he helped impose because he wanted poon.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…