🧵
#ExcessMortality in Ireland with @CSOIreland data through an actuarial lens.
Using official data (not RIP.ie), it appears we've had *at least* 1,140 more deaths than we would have expected in the first half of 2020.
Interesting discoveries discussed 👇
1/
#ExcessMortality in Ireland with @CSOIreland data through an actuarial lens.
Using official data (not RIP.ie), it appears we've had *at least* 1,140 more deaths than we would have expected in the first half of 2020.
Interesting discoveries discussed 👇
1/
1⃣At older ages, we've seen ~1,250 more deaths than expected.
👉 unsurprising given what we know about the virus.
2⃣At ages under 55 we've seen ~120 fewer expected deaths.
👉 suggests that the restrictions may have had a protective effect on younger people.
2/
👉 unsurprising given what we know about the virus.
2⃣At ages under 55 we've seen ~120 fewer expected deaths.
👉 suggests that the restrictions may have had a protective effect on younger people.
2/
3⃣ The pandemic has impacted men significantly more than women.
👉 ~810 of the excess deaths are from males, ~330 are from females.
👉 the pandemic has impacted male mortality positively at younger ages but negatively at older ages.
3/
👉 ~810 of the excess deaths are from males, ~330 are from females.
👉 the pandemic has impacted male mortality positively at younger ages but negatively at older ages.
3/
4⃣Looking at the ratio of male deaths versus what we expect, we see very different impacts on the old and young
👉 in the 15-24 age band, we had around half the deaths we would normally see.
👉 for men aged 85+, we had almost 20% more deaths than we might expect.
4/
👉 in the 15-24 age band, we had around half the deaths we would normally see.
👉 for men aged 85+, we had almost 20% more deaths than we might expect.
4/
Staying with fewer male deaths at younger ages, it's maybe not surprising given accidents are the main cause of death for younger men.
It appears there were ~85 more men aged 15-44 alive at the end of June than expected.
👉restrictions possibly saved lives in unexpected ways
5/
It appears there were ~85 more men aged 15-44 alive at the end of June than expected.
👉restrictions possibly saved lives in unexpected ways
5/
5⃣ By contract, female mortality has been much more in line with expected.
👉 females at younger ages die from fewer accidents than males so the impact of restrictions has a smaller impact.
👉 older age mortality has been higher than expected, but not as bad as for males.
6/
👉 females at younger ages die from fewer accidents than males so the impact of restrictions has a smaller impact.
👉 older age mortality has been higher than expected, but not as bad as for males.
6/
6⃣ It's worth stating the excess deaths shown are a minimum given the delays we've had with death registrations this year.
These figures are likely to be revised upwards as late-notification deaths are registered.
More details from the CSO here:
cso.ie/en/releasesand…
These figures are likely to be revised upwards as late-notification deaths are registered.
More details from the CSO here:
cso.ie/en/releasesand…
7⃣Based on mortality rates in the first half of 2020, the pandemic knocked 7 months off life expectancy for men and 3 months off life expectancy for women, versus where we should be for 2020.
In recent years we had been adding ~3 months to life expectancy each year.
In recent years we had been adding ~3 months to life expectancy each year.
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