Michael Mina Profile picture
Dec 24, 2020 26 tweets 7 min read Read on X
THREAD

There is (rightly) concern about the variant SARS-CoV-2 strains. I want to talk about what this means for vaccines, our future, and why we MUST have contingency plans.

This thread is in response to many questions I've received.

1/24
First, Note: I'm not doing a deep dive on specific mutations. For that, see @angie_rasmussen @jbloom_lab @K_G_Andersen @BillHanage. I am an infectious disease immunologist / epidemiologist & study viruses/vaccines. So I'll speak from that perspective.

2/24
Second Note: I do not want this thread to be alarmist.

To put it upfront, the mutations thus far do not indicate a major evasion of immunity interfering w vaccines. However, the mutations should be a wake up call to action.

3/24
The leading vaccines are each similar.

Different vehicles, but each ultimately display a similar Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2.

The combined vaccine programs are fairly narrow in scope and each provide the immune system with a limited set of epitope targets to work with.

4/24
We are now introducing these vaccines into humans globally when millions of infections are ongoing.

High cases upon vaccine introduction raise risk a mutant might arise somewhere with correct mutations to evade vaccine immunity.

This has NOT happened, but can.

5/24
We have spent so much time, money, energy accelerating vaccines that are all very similar to each other.

Thus, if a virus evolves to evade one, it could more easily adapt to evade the others too.

For this and other reasons, we MUST have contingency plans.

6/24
Out of need for speed earlier this year, we did not build in a ton of contingency plans at the levels of the individual vaccines (i.e. most spike).

For speed this made sense, but didn't account well for futureproofing

Again, this hasn't happened, but we should prepare.

7/24
A major benefit of the mRNA vaccines is they can be reprogrammed quite speedily, allowing new vaccines that target variant strains to be developed quickly.

But, should escape occur, it could mean already vaccinated ppl would potentially need re-vaccinations.

8/24
Again, I reiterate - this hasn't happened - we do NOT see variants escaping vaccine immunity now.

But this is a novel virus and it's naive to think version 1.0 of this virus would be its best.

It is evolving. And we must hope it doesn't, but plan that it will.

9/24
So what does this mean for our future?

First, we should NOT ignore it or assume it's years away.

It could be years, months, could be now. We just don't know.

Even if risk is low, the consequences of immune escape are so immense that it must be top of mind.

10/24
Why must this be top of mind??

*IF*, and this is a huge speculative *IF*, immune escape occurs and SARS-CoV-2 is able to reinfect people - it is not just more infections.

It is global markets and global economic stability on the line.

11/24
In other words, it should be one of the most important considerations at the moment.

We chose 4 closely related spike vaccines.

Immune escape has always been a possibility - while usually considered a remote possibility, this is a virus w room to adapt.

12/24
Importantly:

Reinfections would hopefully be less severe (ie not full immune escape) bc there are multiple areas (epitopes) of the spike protein that immune memory can recognize.

But we should not bank on it. We should plan for the worst but hope for easy sailing.

13/24
So, obviously the issue is immense. We cannot ignore it.

We must have contingency plans.

First: We should be thinking about diversifying our vaccines.

Live attenuated vaccines, multiple protein/peptide vaccines, killed virus vaccines.

Many ARE underway.

14/24
Second:

Given that the new variants have not yet escaped immunity but appear more transmissible, we might consider how we can speed up the vaccines we do have now, as we have discussed.

We should start single-dose trials today.


15/24
Third:

We must scale up frequent accessible rapid testing for at-home/office/school.

These will help slow spread and will not be hindered by mutations that drive immune escape.

Plus, we can adapt new tests if/as needed and move forward.

16/24
If distributed to every home, rapid tests can have a profound effect on virus spread, slowing transmission and dropping R << 1 in weeks.

They can be made in huge numbers.

We must build capacity to make these tests today.

17/24
Over 50 leading scientists and physicians in the #COVID19 response have signed a letter to congress asking for these tests to be prioritized and the funds allocated.

So far Congress has not fully committed to this specifically, Unfortunately.

rapidtests.org/expert-letter

18/24
And here we show some of the science and theory that underlies the use of frequent rapid testing.

advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
20/24
Here we discuss why rapid tests work so well as a contingency plan to vaccines even if they are not as sensitive as PCR.

Note: They are nearly as sensitive and are more specific for detecting contagious virus than PCR. They are more effective.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

21/24
To conclude,

This thread is not intended to scare or fearmonger.

It is intended to answer questions many people have been asking.

IMO, immune escape should rightly be of utmost concern given the extraordinary global consequences should escape occur at this point.

22/24
We should do everything we can to reduce spread as the vaccines are being introduced.

Wear masks, distance when possible, and get rapid tests out for people to know their status, and be empowered to participate in not transmitting virus.

23/24
Everything we do to support the vaccines today, both in efficacy, speed to achieve herd immunity, speed to distribute and reduce risk of immune escape, helps them to work better.

The best thing we can do is reduce the virus as much as possible today, to help vaccines work

24/24
Another important point - we do NOT know how durable vaccine immunity will be even w current strains/2 doses.

Good biological reason to think vaccine durability may fall from high 95% efficacy after a few months.

For this too, we must have contingency plans in place now.
Also, While we should be considering single dose vaccine trials, we should also be very prepared for the magnificent 95% measured efficacy of even 2 dose vaccines to potentially fall away quickly.

We dont know, but it should be considered strongly - here’s why👇

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More from @michaelmina_lab

Jan 16
A lot of questions still on:

How long should I isolate?

Do I need to isolate?

When can I go back to work?

Is 5 days enough?

What if I’m still positive?

Why am I not positive when I first get symptoms?

This thread below (and the embedded thread) goes through many of these questions
Now that symptoms start earlier w COVID (bc immunity activates symptoms fast after exposure)

A frequent ? that comes up is what this means for Paxlovid

Often ppl think it means you have to start Paxlovid earlier

Nope - Opposite! You have more time

2/
Bc symptoms start faster but the growth of the virus still takes about the same time as it used to…

Symptom onset today is ~2d post exposure where before it was ~5d

So, as far as virus growth is concerned, day 5 post symptoms (when the trials took place) is day ~8 today

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 8
A heartbreaking consequence of lapses in vaccination!

A measles outbreak is spreadinf in Philadelphia.

MEASLES! It sends kids to the hospital, erases existing immune memory (creating long term risks) and kills 1 in 1000

It was eliminated in the US, but we seem hell bent on reversing that

inquirer.com/health/measles…
A particularly deadly consequence of measles is its erasure of previously acquired immune memory - setting kids and adults up for infections that they shouldn’t be at risk from!

We found for example that measles can eliminate as much as 80% of someone’s previously acquired immunity to other pathogens!
science.org/doi/full/10.11…
Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 3
This paper from Kaiser on new XBB1.5 vax formulation is misleading

NO, it does NOT say that prior vaccination w non updated XBB1.5 vaccines offer no protection

No, it doesn’t even say the XBB1.5 updates to the vaccine formulation are important

🧵
1/
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Here are the key conclusions.
They are WAY misleading

The major issue is w the timing

The comparison is

A) a VERY recent XBB1.5 vaccine given in last 30 days,

Vs…

B) A vaccine received ~1 year or more ago!

Any effect is first and foremost owing to recency of vax

2/ Image
Given everything we know about major short term (weeks - few months) immune responses after vax or infections

The comparison is NOT able to say anything about the importance of updating the vaccine formulation for variants

It simply says what any Immunology 101
Text says..

3/
Read 15 tweets
Dec 24, 2023
Tip on pooling home tests

I’m gathering w family. Had one @Pfizer Lucira multiplex COVID-Flu home molecular test

Had 6 people and 6 swabs

Everyone used one swab. Dunked all 6 into one Pfizer Lucira test

Neg.

Tested everyone for price of one!

Pooling at home works!
Pooling can work w home tests including rapid antigen and rapid molecular tests

However for antigen id be a bit more cautious and not put more than 3 swabs in the buffer

With molecular, particularly Pfizer Lucira bc it has a large volume buffer, 6 is no problem.
Here’s a nasal swab that would work. Don’t use it as a nasopharyngeal swab at home - just use it like any home self swab and swab the anterior nares

a.co/d/iCO1nsI
Read 4 tweets
Dec 15, 2023
Please note - If you use expired rapid antigen tests - here's how I think about interpreting them

1) If Negative - do not trust it - especially if control line is faint / absent

BUT

2) If Positive - trust it - *very likely* true positive.

(short thread)
1/
An expired test will Not aberrantly turn positive just because it's old

Expiry makes lines not show up. Does make them become dark.

So, if using an expired test:

Do Trust a Positive.
Do Not Trust a Negative.

*And note that many tests have had extended expiry dates...

2/
Here is a thread about the extensions to the expiration dates.

Not all tests are extended but many of them have and that means that the dates on the box may be different from the actual expiration date. I write about it here and how to find out

3/

Read 4 tweets
Nov 28, 2023
Does halving a vax booster dose make a difference to protection?

It shouldn’t

But could lower adverse effects

New @TheLancet paper is a great reminder that the immune system works on exponential scales

Halving the dose has min impact

Compare blue vs orange (half) per group https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(23)00271-7/fulltext#secsectitle0010  No impact between a full dose (in blue) compared to a half dose (orange) in various prime boost groupings.
The paper is a great demonstration of the studies to perform in order to enhance vaccine distribution & access globally

If in emergencies we halve doses could we drive costs down and massively increase access??

Immune kinetics suggests so.

thelancet.com/journals/lanwp…
This is a bit like Ct values on a PCR test.

You can perform two swabs. One can be only half as effective as the first - and it only amounts to a single Ct difference.

One could be a full 90% less efficient and it’s still only 3Cts different!

We often gloss over exponential
Read 4 tweets

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