Michael Mina Profile picture
Dec 24, 2020 26 tweets 7 min read Read on X
THREAD

There is (rightly) concern about the variant SARS-CoV-2 strains. I want to talk about what this means for vaccines, our future, and why we MUST have contingency plans.

This thread is in response to many questions I've received.

1/24
First, Note: I'm not doing a deep dive on specific mutations. For that, see @angie_rasmussen @jbloom_lab @K_G_Andersen @BillHanage. I am an infectious disease immunologist / epidemiologist & study viruses/vaccines. So I'll speak from that perspective.

2/24
Second Note: I do not want this thread to be alarmist.

To put it upfront, the mutations thus far do not indicate a major evasion of immunity interfering w vaccines. However, the mutations should be a wake up call to action.

3/24
The leading vaccines are each similar.

Different vehicles, but each ultimately display a similar Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2.

The combined vaccine programs are fairly narrow in scope and each provide the immune system with a limited set of epitope targets to work with.

4/24
We are now introducing these vaccines into humans globally when millions of infections are ongoing.

High cases upon vaccine introduction raise risk a mutant might arise somewhere with correct mutations to evade vaccine immunity.

This has NOT happened, but can.

5/24
We have spent so much time, money, energy accelerating vaccines that are all very similar to each other.

Thus, if a virus evolves to evade one, it could more easily adapt to evade the others too.

For this and other reasons, we MUST have contingency plans.

6/24
Out of need for speed earlier this year, we did not build in a ton of contingency plans at the levels of the individual vaccines (i.e. most spike).

For speed this made sense, but didn't account well for futureproofing

Again, this hasn't happened, but we should prepare.

7/24
A major benefit of the mRNA vaccines is they can be reprogrammed quite speedily, allowing new vaccines that target variant strains to be developed quickly.

But, should escape occur, it could mean already vaccinated ppl would potentially need re-vaccinations.

8/24
Again, I reiterate - this hasn't happened - we do NOT see variants escaping vaccine immunity now.

But this is a novel virus and it's naive to think version 1.0 of this virus would be its best.

It is evolving. And we must hope it doesn't, but plan that it will.

9/24
So what does this mean for our future?

First, we should NOT ignore it or assume it's years away.

It could be years, months, could be now. We just don't know.

Even if risk is low, the consequences of immune escape are so immense that it must be top of mind.

10/24
Why must this be top of mind??

*IF*, and this is a huge speculative *IF*, immune escape occurs and SARS-CoV-2 is able to reinfect people - it is not just more infections.

It is global markets and global economic stability on the line.

11/24
In other words, it should be one of the most important considerations at the moment.

We chose 4 closely related spike vaccines.

Immune escape has always been a possibility - while usually considered a remote possibility, this is a virus w room to adapt.

12/24
Importantly:

Reinfections would hopefully be less severe (ie not full immune escape) bc there are multiple areas (epitopes) of the spike protein that immune memory can recognize.

But we should not bank on it. We should plan for the worst but hope for easy sailing.

13/24
So, obviously the issue is immense. We cannot ignore it.

We must have contingency plans.

First: We should be thinking about diversifying our vaccines.

Live attenuated vaccines, multiple protein/peptide vaccines, killed virus vaccines.

Many ARE underway.

14/24
Second:

Given that the new variants have not yet escaped immunity but appear more transmissible, we might consider how we can speed up the vaccines we do have now, as we have discussed.

We should start single-dose trials today.


15/24
Third:

We must scale up frequent accessible rapid testing for at-home/office/school.

These will help slow spread and will not be hindered by mutations that drive immune escape.

Plus, we can adapt new tests if/as needed and move forward.

16/24
If distributed to every home, rapid tests can have a profound effect on virus spread, slowing transmission and dropping R << 1 in weeks.

They can be made in huge numbers.

We must build capacity to make these tests today.

17/24
Over 50 leading scientists and physicians in the #COVID19 response have signed a letter to congress asking for these tests to be prioritized and the funds allocated.

So far Congress has not fully committed to this specifically, Unfortunately.

rapidtests.org/expert-letter

18/24
And here we show some of the science and theory that underlies the use of frequent rapid testing.

advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
20/24
Here we discuss why rapid tests work so well as a contingency plan to vaccines even if they are not as sensitive as PCR.

Note: They are nearly as sensitive and are more specific for detecting contagious virus than PCR. They are more effective.

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

21/24
To conclude,

This thread is not intended to scare or fearmonger.

It is intended to answer questions many people have been asking.

IMO, immune escape should rightly be of utmost concern given the extraordinary global consequences should escape occur at this point.

22/24
We should do everything we can to reduce spread as the vaccines are being introduced.

Wear masks, distance when possible, and get rapid tests out for people to know their status, and be empowered to participate in not transmitting virus.

23/24
Everything we do to support the vaccines today, both in efficacy, speed to achieve herd immunity, speed to distribute and reduce risk of immune escape, helps them to work better.

The best thing we can do is reduce the virus as much as possible today, to help vaccines work

24/24
Another important point - we do NOT know how durable vaccine immunity will be even w current strains/2 doses.

Good biological reason to think vaccine durability may fall from high 95% efficacy after a few months.

For this too, we must have contingency plans in place now.
Also, While we should be considering single dose vaccine trials, we should also be very prepared for the magnificent 95% measured efficacy of even 2 dose vaccines to potentially fall away quickly.

We dont know, but it should be considered strongly - here’s why👇

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Michael Mina

Michael Mina Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelmina_lab

Feb 26
This is horrible & exactly what we are afraid of - measles kills ppl

In ~100 infections in TX, someone has already died

For those w/out vacc- it is not the benign virus you’ve been told

1:5 hospitalized
1:100-1000 die

This will spread further.

1/

apnews.com/article/measle…
The measles vaccine is exceedingly safe

It stops infections & spread extremely well!!

Measles on the other hand

1) kills 1:100-1000
2) hospitalizes 1:5
3) Kills immune cells & deletes protection against other infections
4) causes early immune suppression / coinfections

2/
I am extremely concerned that the communities of vaccine hesitancy have grown enough that they are now “bleeding into each other”

Which means infection in one may well ignite outbreaks of many thousands

That will come w more disease and death

Vaccination will prevent this

3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 19
Measles cases may likely grow into the 1000’s

The TX measles outbreak continues

With “bubbles” of undervaccination getting bigger, we can expect outbreaks in one to catch on to the next

Igniting transmission that may catch and spread across the U.S.

cnn.com/2025/02/18/hea…
One of the most common tropes is that measles is fine & doesn’t cause damage…

This is highly inaccurate

Measles literally grows by infecting and killing memory immune cells. It causes loss to existing immunity creating vulnerabilities & acute damage that is often severe

2/
To discover the massive-stealth-impact measles has on immune protection against infections not associated w measles, we looked at what happened in populations after measles outbreaks swept through, decade after decade across nations…

What we found was astonishing…

3/
Read 19 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
Important wake up call:

#H5N1 BirdFlu just sequenced by @CDCgov from severe Louisiana patient

Most important, the H5 virus mutated inside the single patient to gain an ability to bind human receptors in the upper respiratory tract

It takes just one…

cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotl…Image
This is exactly the type of thing we worry about.

The mutations developed anew in this patient have been linked to severe cases elsewhere

Thank goodness the patient didnt (as far as we know) spread to any people or wildlife but this is the real concern…

We must do better

2/
And what should we do… there are many things we (USGov) should be doing yet barely have:
Read 6 tweets
Oct 3, 2024
🧵 On Seasonality:
SARS-CoV-2 has "seasonality" as a contributor to transmission dynamics

People often refute it - So I made graphs and this thread

NOTE: Seasonality does NOT = "just a cold"
Many of worst viruses have seasonality

Transmission Dynamics ≠ Pathogenicity

1/Image
Image
Image
The first figure is Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels averaged across the whole United States

See the REMARKABLE stability in the winter peak

The peak happens in the exact same week each year

Additionally, the start up the upswing to the peak (triangles) is also consistent

2/Image
A common misconception is that "Seasonality" means "no transmission out of season"

That is NOT TRUE

Seasonal forces are those that drive predictable behavior - like a winter peak in the first week of each year

3/
Read 14 tweets
Aug 18, 2024
Huge News for access to STI tests in the U.S. to help curb the growing syphilis epidemic

The @US_FDA just authorized the first fully at home OTC test for syphilis

A finger prick blood test for antibodies against the bug that causes it (T. Pallidum)

1/

nbcnews.com/health/sexual-…
For a number of decades, syphilis has been trending up in the U.S.

The cause isn’t singularly but likely is associated with relaxations of prevention of STIs in the context of more effective prophylaxis for HIV (PrEP). Plus general lack of awareness



2/publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/why-is-sy…
When left untreated, Syphilis can have devastating consequences on human health

Luckily there is very simple treatment for it (a form of Penicillin) but it only works if you take it - and you only take it if you know you have syphilis

Hence the importance of an OTC test!

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 3, 2024
Such a bad interpretation that stands to harm patient care

Let's not throw the baby out w the bathwater for COVID-19 (and flu etc)!

Suggesting to only run PCR & not rapid means most (50%-80%) of patients get WORSE care & at higher costs

Here's why:

A 🧵

1/
When I see publications & docs say “don’t use a rapid test, only use a PCR”

it assumes this is an OR only situation

Ridiculous!

A rapid test is… RAPID… and highly affordable

You lose ~nothing by it and give your patient the opportunity to GAIN tremendously

2/
If the test is positive, then for that 80%+ of culture positive ppl … your job is done immediately

You’ve spent $5 and 5 minutes and they can get on treatment right away

If you didn’t do it, it will be be 1-2 days and ~$150 before they can get started on treatment

3/
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(