Thread by @Cosmic_Penguin

So after much ponderings and persistent rumors of at least 1 more Chinese satellite launch before 2020's out, evidences today confirms that, yes, there's one. A Long March 4 series (most probably 4C but can also be 4B) out of Jiuquan towards SSO, on December 27 ~15:40 UTC. (1/12)

This turns out to be a classic example of how the sheer existence of such a Chinese launch/satellite have to be, or can be deduced by rumors, tell tales of official articles, tracking ships movements and air/marine space closure notices. (2/12) forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topi…

So firstly there were consistent rumors for several weeks that after seemingly grounded since late October the LM-4 series would be back before 2020 ends. The rumors continues to hold on w/o any basis...until after the Long March 8 test flight flew on the 22nd. (3/12)

Being so late in the year we would expect various state organizations to make "concluding remarks" in their official news after that launch. And here's the caveat: Major rocket builder CALT, S/C builder CAST and Xichang SLC (+Wenchang) all did...but several didn't. (4/12)

The higher-ups (CASC etc.) & notably S/C & rocket builder SAST didn't, hinting at yet another launch afterward before Dec. 31. With the LM-2D & the LM-6 both officially declared their 2020 schedules completed way earlier (Aug. & Nov.) the only choice left is the LM-4. (5/12)

Also with CAST declared all their S/Cs launch schedules of 2020 closed out, this leaves SAST as the most likely builder of the payload as well. We don't have much idea on what it could be yet (but see below on the hints by the launch time). (6/12)

Another data source comes from movements of the Yuan Wang 6 tracking ship, off the W coast of Australia. After tracking the LM-8 launch downrange it moved further *west*, apparently just stopped at 25°26′ S 89°48′ E, fitting w/ tracking SSO launches out of Jiuquan. (7/12)

Then today an official article on cold weather operations (rocket stacking, payload air circulation, pad maintenance etc.) at JSLC came out, pointing at recent pad operations under -15°C: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5XjsJPzU6yRI… (8/12)

To paraphase @Rogozin - "This is not Boca Chica." (ahem), and I'm not sure those pad rats working on the launch tower are fitting OSHA rules...in any case the existence of a rocket on the LM-2/4 pad at Jiuquan is confirmed. (9/12)

Then...a wild NOTAM appeared! This time it's just off the coast of Myanmar near Yangon, fitting w/ Jiuquan SSO launches - on December 27 15:38 - 16:04 UTC!

(Ref. No.: A0330/20) (10/12)

It still amazes me that even more elusive "urban myths" turned out to be correct for Chinese spaceflight, notably the reusable space plane launch that I have saw very little yet persistent rumors since *late November 2019* and ultimately happened this September! (11/12)

So there you have it, how different hints and puzzles from various sources can help pinpoint the mere existence and details of a new Chinese spacecraft going to orbit and beyond, when at a glance all we got are sparse "rumors/urban legends". 😄(12/12)