Thread by @TheDailyMao

FYI, this gets multiplied 1,000x when Western (mainly US) media talks about China.

The US loves to talk about how China's Leninist model makes it prone to 'miscalculation' in foreign policy, but the US's media echo chamber is a far bigger driver of miscalculation

Like, just witness the reaction to this article. The article is a fairly banal discussion of a) intent and b) capability among the US, PRC, and ROC. This is the kind of discussion that is found in mil/int, academia, and corporates all the time

https://twitter.com/RStatecraft/status/1341760487080534016

But US commenters on Twitter-land have treated the article as some sort of paean to appeasement and the author as basically a Chinese shill.

Worse, more serious US pundits have decided to bend or ignore reality in order to get their points across (or, in the case of Jessica, prolong Taiwan's status as a loyal customer of overpriced Raytheon hardware)

No one seems to acknowledge the very serious issues the article raises, which is that

a) The ROC lasts only 3 days vs PRC
b) the more explicitly the US supports the ROC, the more likely the PRC is to attack
c) the US might blink first when that happens

And moreover, no one raises two very important corollaries:

d) the US might not be able to dislodge the PRC from Taiwan island without using nuclear weapons
e) Trade - especially tech trade - was a main driver of PRC-ROC peace, but the ROC is now embargoing the PRC on chips

Put together, and you have a recipe for one of three outcomes happening:

1) China retakes Taiwan soon, the US blinks, and its credibility is shattered
2) the US doesn't blink, and China retakes Taiwan anyways
3) the US doesn't blink, and we have a nuclear war

I'll bet that none of these outcomes are what "China Watchers" or "Team Taiwan" want to see, yet because of their "reality-lite" approach to discussing foreign policy issues, we appear to be headed towards them sooner than they can imagine

China might even find it a good thing that the US is losing its proverbial mind on this topic. A TW scenario is the only move China could do that breaks US prestige in AsiaPac right now, and the more the US screeches about TW, the more relative influence China gains down the road

What's sad is that when that day comes, the 'reality-lite' pundits in the US - in true narcissistic fashion - will likely blame some mythical fifth column for sabotaging the US rather than objectively assessing how their own delusions might have contributed to disaster

Which brings me to my final point: if you are a Chinese person living in the US, *you* will blamed for the outcome of any US-China conflict - a conflict which is growing more likely thanks to the US echo chamber.

I would just get out now, but if you (and your family) want to live in a future whose outcomes range from digital ostracization and internment camps all the way to Fallout roleplay just so that Jessica Drun can continue moralizing from her Raytheon-funded perch, be my guest.
/end