Between the pandemic & california mega fires & american dysfunction 2020 has been Mike Davis' cassandraesque year. But every time you think he's hit Peak Bleak, turns out he's still climbing... substack.sashafrerejones.com/p/friday-decem…
thankfully mike davis was completely wrong about the uneven burden of Covid. It hit poor countries of the subcontinent & africa much less than richer europe & americas.
Terrible as covid-19 is, a reminder that it could have been deadlier. Spanish flu killed the young more than the old. 60% of global mortality, some 20 million of 1918-19's toll was in India. Industrial Agriculture & inequality as Mike Davis warns will eventually produce a monster
After WW II we created a UN peacekeeping force. But war isn't top danger of mankind anymore. Dangerous microbes emerging like sparks out of the furnace of industrial agriculture are. As Davis suggests, we need to be better prepared sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/h…
If you read bw historian Mike Davis' apocalyptic lines, policy advice for 2020s:
-Pay ppl to thin weeds, clear millions of dead trees & do prescribed burns
-Move ppl out of fire prone, sprawling zones to denser coasts
- limit human ignition
- Cut CO2 FAST rosaluxnycblog.org/california-fir…
5/ Mike davis on American politics is peerless. Ecology, Empire & Economy all held in a single unified field unlike those who plough their single furrows.
6/ Riot on the Hill: "a big biker gang dressed as circus performers and war-surplus barbarians ... stormed the ultimate country club, squatted on Pence’s throne, chased Senators into the sewers and, above all, shot endless selfies.” ht Mike Davis newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/…
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The market: Electricity hungry BigTech created a credits "system is akin to buying the right from a fitter colleague to say you have cycled to work, even though you arrived by a car that runs on petrol." @CamillaHodgson ft.com/content/2d6fc3…
“The market will solve climate”
The market: Oil Pipelines are ESG and low carbon! This giant tub of ice-cream won't make you fat because the tub is made of zero-calorie material & by athletes.
Netanyahu assassinates Haniyeh in Tehran & Hezbollah’s Shukr in Beirut. We are on cusp of regional war in Middle East. Forces are being deployed, Defences readied, Redlines of targets communicated.
2/ In Israel's corner are US, UK, Egypt, Saudis, Jordan &Abraham Accord (informal milvalliance) with oil Kingdoms - UAE, Bahrain.
They have communicated to Israel that they will defend Israel if it is attacked by Iran axis but will not participate in a war initiated by Israel
3/ "US is expecting the anticipated Iranian attack may be similar to the barrage of ballistic missiles & drones launched against Israel on April 13...But this attack could be larger...including the possibility of a coordinated attack with Iranian proxies from multiple directions"
The vibe shift, on the ground, in swing state Wisconsin
" Kamala Harris electrified the crowd in her first campaign rally as presumptive Democratic nominee. "I haven’t felt anything like this in many, many years,possibly since President Obama’s first run" therecombobulationarea.news/p/in-west-alli…
For 2yrs, gap between sentiment & economics widen. Did Kamala end vibecession? @kylascan
"There's layers to the cake:
How people expect things to be (expectations)
How things are supposed to be (theory)
How things are (reality)"
2/ Ecology: With super hot oceans, we are very worried about this Atlantic hurricane season. THIRTY storms are predicted plus minus 5, depending on el nino
3/London, Zurich, Bermuda are home of reinsurance.
Insurance model rely on risks being 1 Uncorrelated 2 Calculable 3 Paid for by mkt returns elsewhere
But #globalwarming upends Insurance
It correlates risks (global!); creates catastrophic fat-tails; and crimps returns everywhere.
what reading one book by Brett Christophers does to a mf
‘while it is possible to prevent businesses from doing profitable things, it is impossible to make them do things they consider insufficiently profitable’. Why do all this 'market failure' nonsense ft.com/content/b2b6fb…
Brett Chrisopher's work on Rentier Capitalism has been eyeopening. Asset Managers like Blackrock now run the roads we drive on; the pipes that supply our drinking water; the farmland that provides our food; electricity & heat. Nice profile
Under capitalism, profit expectations drive companies’ invstmt decisions. Building solar/wind & selling the electricity they generate, however, generally is not a very profitable business What sort of returns do investors earn, asks Brett Christophers time.com/6958606/climat…
Yes, BJP still sets the terms in the Indian parliament. But it will not have the decisive electoral majority of 2019-2024 lok sabha where it ran bills with zero opposition or consultation. After this election it will have to respect India’s opposition and democracy
India's stock market slides. Their logic?
BJP not winning in a landslide -> forced to have a NDA coalition government that will inevitably have to be more pro-welfare
--> hence the BJP cannot do nakedly pro-rich liberal reforms --> Oops, sell sell sell
Adani's reversal tells you everything.
"In 9yrs of Modi’s tenure, Adani’s wealth grew from $8bn to $137bn. In 2022 alone, he made $72bn, which is more than the combined earnings of the world’s next 9 billionaires" ht @AnnPettifor