TAIL RISK THREAD: A tail risk is one that is small but devastating. When an 8 year- old asks about crossing the road to get to a bus stop you correctly point out that there is a 1% risk she will get run over. However you might want to suggest instead 1/x
A 3-min walk to the traffic lights and crossing. To frame tail risk you include probability distribution of the event (car colliding with girl), with an outcome function (girl likely dies if hit), and account for the cost of mitigation (3 minutes to walk to traffic light) 2/x
In the realm of climate change, climate scientists are the ones charged with estimating the event risk, while other disciplines (e.g. economics, engineering) must be brought to bear on estimating outcome, and the costs of mitigating the risk or adapting to it. 3/x
In climate change there is a 5% chance of the Earth's temperature staying stable. And 5% chance it runs away to 4,6 degrees and mass die-off. We need a multi-perspective method to frame a risk response. What would that look like? 4/x
We cannot ask climate scientists to be truthful about the risks and then call them alarmists when they describe the tail risks. We need to create that space where the nexus of science, technology, social science and economics can meet to have a sensible discussion 5/x
Politicians are incapable, and the political system is incapable of handling tail risks. The only solution I see is for citizens to demand they give up the power to citizens' assemblies and these assemblies get informed at the nexus of the multi-disciplines. 6/x
The political system works when there is no emergency. Facing potential catastrophe, even a tail-end one, people's first tendency is to look after their own interests first. We cannot have a system that amplifies that. Let us now create that space: 7/x
Pivotprojects.org proposes creating a decision framework for citizens assemblies around the pivot: a rapid stop and re-direction of the way we live. Rather like the discussion the adult has with the girl about how to cross the road to get to the bus-stop. 8/9
Read more on tail end here ecologise.in/2018/06/24/tai… And do check @BespokePanic /END THREAD

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Stephen Hinton

Stephen Hinton Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @stephen_hinton

27 Dec
THREAD: Understanding pivot. Growing pressure from world population life-style will reach a point where it is damaging the capacity of Earth systems to an extent where life support will be challenged. It is simply a question of at what stage governments act. 1/X
Pivot is the same at each point 1-4. I use the STOP acronym. a) Stop, or halt, all increase of extraction/drawdown. b) Think, plan measures that will restore Earth system capacity and keep delivering basic services. c) Organise, re-work old regulations and agencies and then 2/x
Proceed to act. Notice that pivots are different depending on where measures are set in. It is MUCH harder to change when carrying capacity is challenged to an extent where people are dying. However, the pivot idea is a useful decision framework as you will see in 3/x
Read 10 tweets
17 Dec
Thread: A pivot is a sudden change in direction to another direction. The diagram explains why we need to pivot now: the sum aggregate of business activities is extracting more from and putting more into natural systems than the systems can handle. The consequence? Contd...
Natural systems unable to support the number of human population and there will be a massive die-off. This phenomenon is well-known by biologists. Populations rise and crash all the time. Populations CAN exceed carrying capacity a short time - but a crash always results. contd
We have no choice now, having entered the danger zone, but to prepare for the crash. This requires us to voluntarily pivot. Declare the emergency for what it is and get on with it.
Read 8 tweets
12 Dec
Thread on pivoting: to avoid worse crises our way of life has to pivot. That is to say, STOP. Stop going in current direction. THINK through the new direction. ORGANISE so we are ready then PIVOT.>>> Image
Utopia you might say on Pivot. We cannot agree. We have I say. The broad direction and even speed of that change is embedded in the Sustainable Development Goals. How then to apply SDG goals to plan pivots? Well, >>>
Presented in this form, the bottom layer of SDGs show what to pivot away from - ceilings. The social layer shows the floors to keep above and the top layer shows the economic operating space for the production system with peace as our aim. Let's look at the math>>> Image
Read 9 tweets
3 Dec
Thread: Science Based targets like Global Carbon Budget, Planetary boundaries, SDGs, are a good start. They set up a common boundary, but a common boundary is not a commons. so ... globalcommonsalliance.org/alliance-proje…
Current rules of the game that allow people with money to use that to buy property and use that property without any limits being set on that use - to the extent that the use of said property blows away all common-agreed limits contd:
The last 30 years how fossil fuel CO2 emissions have risen DESPITE a common agreement to limit warming. This shows how little political power there really is - trumped by the power of money. Capital as Power, Jonathan Nitzan & Shimshon Bichler shows this economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/08/26/fre…
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!