Dougie Kass Profile picture
Dec 28, 2020 6 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Coming up on @realmoney
My 15 Surprises for 2021
* In 2020 (despite broad February-March weakness) equities rose faster, valuations expanded far greater and interest rates fell sharper than the consensus expected
* 2021 could be a year in which the S&P Index shows little
movement in the first half of the year - but market pressures might mount over the last six months of 2021
* The S&P could end the year at levels -15% below 2020 year-end prices and far below that of the consensus (+8%) under the weight of higher inflation and interest rates in
the second half of the year
* With the "bond vigilantes" coming out of a multi-decade hibernation, 2021 might bring on a compression in price earnings ratios following the reset higher in multiples over the last nine months of 2020
* Next year might mark the return of political
normalcy and a marked recovery in the cooperation and coordination between the Democratic and Republican parties
* After leaving office, former President Trump may abruptly lose his relevance and he could end the year with numerous legal and financial challenges he is unable to
recover from
* Tech as in wreck - as the pivot from growth to value (banks et al) accelerates? FAANG becomes GATFAT
* Tesla's shares could drop by two thirds this year
* Goldman Sachs may go private
* The price of bitcoin and of precious metals could move much higher - but

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More from @DougKass

Jan 8
Plagarism! My Surprise @realmoney (written in December, 2023)... 1. Donald Trump is convicted of obstruction and conspiracy.
In an agreement between the former President and the current President, Biden pardons Trump in exchange for Trump agreeing to leave the 2024 Presidential
race. Governor Ron DeSantis finishes third in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and drops out of the race -- with Nikki Haley capturing many of his supporters - closing the gap with Trump. Chris Christie drops out soon thereafter while Vivek Ramaswamy hangs on to the
bitter end. Nikki Haley becomes the Republican Presidential nominee
In early September, shortly after Biden wins the nomination, the President suffers a health emergency and, like Trump, leaves the race. If Trump indeed has left the race, Governor Gavin Newsom is selected as the
Read 5 tweets
Dec 23, 2023
@dougkass Image
We are all aware of the Biblical and commercial aspects of Christmas.
Perhaps we should, as we approach the Holidays, listen to what that worldly philosopher, The Grinch, had to say:
“It came without ribbons! It came without tags! It came without packages, boxes, or bags!"
He puzzled and puzzled till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. Maybe Christmas he thought doesn't come from a store. Maybe Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more! And what happened then? Well, in Whoville they say That the Grinch's
Read 5 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
Here is a preview of my 10 Surprises for 2024 to be published tomorrow on @realmoney
Surprise #1. Donald Trump is convicted of obstruction and conspiracy. In an agreement between the former President and the current President, Biden pardons Trump in exchange for Trump agreeing to
leave the 2024 Presidential race. Governor Ron DeSantis finishes third in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and drops out of the race - with Nicky Haley capturing many of his supporters - closing the gap with Trump. Chris Christie drops out soon thereafter while Vivek
Ramaswamy hangs on to the bitter end.  Nicky Haley becomes the Republican Presidential nominee.  In early September, shortly after Biden wins the nomination, the President suffers a health emergency and, like Trump, leaves the race. If Trump indeed has left the race, Governor
Read 5 tweets
Dec 5, 2023
@realmoney
A Key Theme of My Rosie Podcast Yesterday
* In yesterday's podcast I quoted Alfred E. Neuman, Bob Farrell, Lee Cooperman, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Rousseau, Voltaire and Grandma Koufax in explaining my ursine market view.
Investors are unjustifiably discounting a "Goldilocks Outlook".
Given the wide range of outcomes (economic, political, social,  geopolitical, and  market) there are no certainties in an uncertain world.
As an example,  expressed below in a tweet by Mohamed El-Erian, one major
concern we have is the foundering of China's economy - remembering that China has been the engine of worldwide economic growth:


Market participants have never been more leveraged and, arguably have never been as unconcerned with value and concerned
Read 7 tweets
Dec 4, 2023
@realmoney Trade of the Week - Short $QQQ ($388.61)
With the "S&P Short Range Oscillator" surging to 7.33% at Friday's close from 4.93% - the overbought is now getting extreme.
The weakness we began to see late last week in mega cap technology stocks is likely to accelerate
into the next few weeks of December and early January with large tech holders in the "Magnificent Seven" leaking out positions to be followed by a lot of selling at the beginning of 2024 by taxable participants (pushing gains forward).
Moreover, this chart shows an unprecedented divergence between the Nasdaq and Central Bank balance sheets which could mean regress: Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 21, 2023
@realmoney @dougkass The Perpetual Liquidity Machine
* More thought on the dirty water of liquidity...
I think of the ginormous amount of liquidity the Fed created after 2007 as held in a huge flat pan - the world economy - with high sides. You tilt it to one end and
the water moves like a tsunami in that direction, you try to keep it from slopping over (to terrorists and Nigerian bankers) by tilting it back and another (hopefully smaller tsunami moves in the opposite direction).
Repeat that over and over again and over years and years, even
an enormous amount of excess liquidity will be absorbed although not a small amount will land with the grifters and con artists.
But it can and is taking a long time.
It is not, in my mind, dissimilar from what happened to Spain and Europe when large amounts of gold and silver
Read 7 tweets

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