Many people have had this thought, none of them have been able to produce strong empirical evidence for it. If this effect were really compelling, America wouldn't have a more dynamic economy than Europe, but it does, despite a pretty bad regulatory and tax architecture.
There were a lot of predictions that Obamacare would goose the rate of entrepreneurship, and the theory is the same: by derisking a startup, it should make it easier to form one. Didn't show up in the numbers: bls.gov/bdm/entreprene…
On the margin might this produce a small effect? Maybe. But there could also be countervailing effects; for example, the higher taxes necessary to pay for a large welfare state might reduce the potential return to entrepreneurship, making people less interested in it.
At any rate, very little evidence that a significant expansion of the welfare state, one particularly accessible to middle class folks who might want to start a business but fear losing insurance for their preexisting condition, helped. Nor do x-country comps look good.
So whatever the reasons for expanding the welfare state, "boost entrepreneurship" lacks either a strong theoretical or empirical basis. Seems totally plausible, but so do many things that aren't true.

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More from @asymmetricinfo

30 Dec
This seems like a good time to discuss my most recently printed column,. Because this effect shows up strongly in the responses to it.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
And also, frankly, in the responses to the column that preceded it, which discussed the CDC's "Let some old people die in the name of equity" vaccination strategy.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/publi…

But we'll leave that for another tweetstorm.
Back to the column at hand, which was about the people I follow who called covid-19 as a big problem AHEAD of the big mid-March shift in the upper-middle-class professional consensus. What sort of people were they?
Read 20 tweets
23 Dec
Still think that whatever its ostensible subject, an enormous amount of performative rage on the internet--and its audience counterpart, rage-seeking--is about using rage to suppress more normal anxiety and sadness about quotidien things like death, aging, loneliness, failure.
This works only temporarily and in the meantime makes everything worse, but it does work temporarily. Hard to think about your unsatisfying marriage or your mother's decline into dementia when you're so mad at some jerk in Tuscaloosa or Portland who said something awful!
When internet rage targets you, instead of getting worked up into an equally towering dudgeon, consider the attacker is probably sad and frightened & trying to deal with that, albeit unproductively, like we all do sometimes. Give them the benefit of the doubt, and a little grace.
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec
Last chance to order Christmas gifts! So here's the guide, one last time:
cookerymonster.substack.com

And here are the cookbook recommendations I didn't write up, because my day job intervened.
The Apple Lover’s Cookbook: amzn.to/3axIq2o You mayn't think you want an entire cookbook about apples. I sure didn't, but then my father sent me one anyway. It turns out it's charming, packed with information about apples, & boasts an apple crisp recipe identical to mine.
Jacques Pepin Fast Fast Food My Way (amzn.to/2JV6pNt) More Fast Food My Way (amzn.to/3oq6IPp) and Quick and Simple (amzn.to/33JMuYU)Unafraid to use cans and boxes, but unlike most such recipes, actually good. A godsend for those who are sick of cooking.
Read 13 tweets
15 Dec
Most delightful aspect of my pandemic is how my mother--with whom I often quarreled early on, trying to get her to take more precautions--now delivers me patriotic little lectures on how We All Do Our Bit to protect the hospitals, which would not be out of place in any WWII movie
This is actually extremely on-brand for my mother, who during 9/11 heard a rumor that firemen needed sweatpants and socks, and immediately stripped the whole house of them to bring to the fire station, forcing us all to launder the pair we'd been wearing nightly for over a month.
Still, the perfect delivery of these speeches, which really could have been written by a 1940s screenwriter, is both heartening and amusing in an otherwise grim time.
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec
The best part: it was published in by the (ultimately doomed) publishing house Mark Twain started, and commissioned mostly as a charity towards Grant, who was broke and dying. Twain was expecting something lifeless and dull that could be rewritten; he got a flawless memoir.
Both men made a bundle off the memoir. Grant used it to pay off his creditors and settle his family safely. Twain, alas, poured the money into a doomed typesetting machine, got beaten to market by linotype, and spent the 1890s on lecture tour trying to pay off his own creditors.
Out of respect for Grant, Twain appears to have paid Grant royalties that were unprecedented--Wikipedia says 30%, with his widow ultimately netting around $12 mm, inflation adjusted. Grant reciprocated by writing furiously while the cancer ate through his body, 25-50 pages a day.
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec
We had a dear family friend who always slightly messed up his recipes so that they wouldn't come out quite as good when you made them. Jim died of AIDS just months after the first protease inhibitors became available. I miss him, and his cooking, still.
Another Jim story--my mother once found out that his "secret" for making these great pork pies was to order them from Myers of Keswick. My mother had begged like four terrible recipes from him over the years. Watching the triumph and rage war on her face was absolutely delicious.
(These days, you'd think "Of course, Myers of Keswick", but it wasn't particularly well known back then, and I have the idea that it had just opened.)
Read 5 tweets

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