1/x The 1way santa🎅train🚂 to the moon continues its ascent... Nearly reaching our long called min objective of 3750.75 overnight. As discussed, the window for potencial weakness opens in 5 trading days at 1 of my price 2 objectives of 3770.5, or 3811.25... But now
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1343488510028820481
2/x comes the hard part... Figuring out how the market shakes this accelerating Vol compression & the growing parallel calls for a coming correction to cause the most pain to the greatest # of investors... Where is the PAIN TRADE? Because it is NEVER easy... I have a couple of
3/x thoughts here. It seems more & more likely to me that we could see a rally from 1/5 into 1/11-15 regardless of outcome. This would confound a lot of those preparing for a pullback (especially in the case of a dem sweep), causing dealers to throw in the towel abandoning long
4/x Vol positions. It’d also allow the market to stretch the rally to unexpected heights, allowing for a slide to too low fixed strike Ivols, forcing a squeeze for IVol & allow for an unpinning of IVol... it is either this or the decline begins much sooner than expected, jumping
5/x the gun to the downside here in the next 3 days, when nobody’s expecting it...But that seems highly unlikely given the extent of the current vol compression for 12/30-12/31 & the immutable power of EOY & BOY flows. We’ll continue to keep our head on a swivel, with a foot by
6/6 the exit, playing for the most likely outcome of a V shaped blow off top going into or, as posited in the week following the event...Watch for an expansion of the range which is currently happening. Gamma should begin to pay at these levels. First up, then down...Good Luck!🍀
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