The President of South Africa appeared on national TV to tell some lies in support of perpetuating destructive Covid malarkey. Out came the old chestnut that data support the effectiveness of past measures. Where is this magic data? 2/12 frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
Similarly, that masks we are supposedly not wearing (though no data supports that allegation) have this magical property of preventing infection, again based on “data” that we are not privy to. Maskology. 3/12 acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
He took the borked theory of asymptomatic transmission to a new level with the phrase “asymptomatic super-spreader events”. 4/12 bmj.com/content/371/bm…
The dodginess of the asymptomatic transmission theory is now common currency, for all with open eyes. 5/12
He cited every +ve PCR test as an instance of someone who’d contracted COVID-19, which is not even claimed by test manufacturers, & implying he still does not understand the basic difference between the virus, SARS CoV-2, & the disease, COVID-19. 6/12
This follows hot on the heels of his Minister of Health saying the new variant meant young people were at equal risk, implying a 1,000-fold increase in fatality. He had to walk back his claim, based on “anecdotes”, less than 48 hours later. 7/12 ewn.co.za/2020/12/19/mkh…
This is the same Minister of Health who speaks of people testing +ve for COVID-19 & who has formulated regulations referring to the rt-PCR test as a COVID-19 test, again failing to grasp the difference between the virus & the disease. 8/12 gov.za/speeches/minis…
These are the same regulations that were implemented as part of "21 days to flatten the curve" some 277 days ago and had no flattening effect whatsoever. 9/12
9 months into the crisis, Government still hasn't produced a lockdown impact assessment. Why? The tyrannical regulations bear a cost in lives massively exceeding lives lost to COVID-19 via millions of lost jobs, health interventions & educations. 10/12 collateralglobal.org
The President's lockdown is the greatest threat to SA lives. Not for billionaires & politicians who get paid through the crisis, but for the poor whose jobs are cut, who lack medical aid & whose kids don't have Zoom. 11/12
Ordinary people with an ounce of spine see through the absurdity of shutting down the whole country to protect a wealthy vulnerable minority. Be one of them. 12/12
Excess Deaths has become a popular way, globally, to assess the overall changes in reported deaths this year relative to what was expected this year. We are also watching the data with interest in South Africa.
In layman’s terms, excess deaths are the difference between reported deaths and expected deaths. For the reporting period 6 May to 7 July 2020, the total excess deaths amount to 3,159 deaths.
During the same period, the reported COVID-19 deaths in South Africa amounted to 3,354 deaths. This suggests that the reported deaths and excess deaths are in broad alignment.
One of the most striking features of the covid story is the huge geographic disparity in mortality rates. Follow this link to see Panda’s version 1.2 of our further exploration into the determinants of inter-country variation in covid mortality. pandata.org.za/papers/
1/12
The expected suspects register: age & comorbidity prevalence. Obesity shows up—independently of those. Half of inter-country variance is absorbed by these three.
2/12
Lockdown stringency registers another round zero, with respect to both deaths and duration to peak. As always, we invite evidence to the contrary, though we have learnt to expect little.
3/12
Just as one group of modellers goes to ground after getting things catastrophically wrong for foreseeable reasons, a new one emerges to repeat the trick. A game of modeller whack-a-mole, anybody?
From news on 3 July, it would appear that the Western Cape is about to be ravaged by Covid-19. Professor Andrew Boulle of the Western Cape Provincial Department of Health believes the Western Cape has not yet reached its peak. iol.co.za/news/south-afr…
He also claims that the peak is going to be “flatter, later and longer” and that some districts’ eventual mortality rate could easily reach 1,500 per million, “which would take those communities into the realm of New York state, Madrid or Stockholm”. heraldlive.co.za/news/2020-07-0…
@David_Makhura, South Africa’s 7-day rolling average of deaths per million (DPM) is fractionally above 1, hardly backing lockdown-alarmist theories. Some perspective? Belgium was losing 26x more than SA at its peak, despite similar stringency (navy line). /1
Our curve is similar to Russia’s, with whom we share many characteristics. But here are some worse than SA for daily DPM. UK 14x USA 8x, Ireland 14x and Italy 13x worse than SA. Instead of celebrating our resilience you want us to wreak yet more havoc on the economy? /2
In cumulative DPM (another way of looking at it), SA is currently at 45, Belgium 855, UK 660, Spain 613, USA 391. It’s not lockdown that causes the difference. Here are the worst countries in the world. /3