Thread by @boriquagato

global health policy in 2020 has centered around NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) like distancing, masks, school closures

these have been sold as a way to stop infection as though this were science.

this was never true and that fact was known and knowable.

let's look.

above is the plot of social restriction and NPI vs total death per million. there is 0 R2. this means that the variables play no role in explaining one another.

we can see this same relationship between NPI and all cause deaths.

this is devastating to the case for NPI.

clearly, correlation is not proof of causality, but a total lack of correlation IS proof that there was no material causality.

barring massive and implausible coincidence, it's essentially impossible to cause something and not correlate to it, especially 51 times.

this would seem to pose some very serious questions for those claiming that lockdowns work, those basing policy upon them, and those claiming this is the side of science.

there is no science here nor any data. this is the febrile imaginings of discredited modelers.

this has been clear and obvious from all over the world since the beginning and had been proven so clearly by may that it's hard to imagine anyone who is actually conversant with the data still believing in these responses.

everyone got the same R curve

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1266747365609750528?s=20

lockdowns were a panic response.

they came LONG after disease growth curves had rolled over and had no effect overall.

it's clear when you plot google mobility data vs disease curves.

(this is from may)

r2 was ~0. this was all proven by may and strongly argued by april.

this data is literally overwhelming. there is just no evidence that lockdowns work.

spain and netherlands had radically different responses

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264656012201492480?s=20

but got R curves that were all but indistinguishable.

this issue crops up everywhere.

mitigation has zero effect.

similarly, there is no evidence that opening again had any effect either.

and this was all known. every set of longstanding pandemic guidelines contra-indicated lockdowns.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280990976694083585?s=20

it's 50 year old pseudoscience and the clarity with which NPI was dismissed by everyone until this year when we suddenly abandoned 100 years of science and started making stuff up and moralizing about it as though it were canon is stunning.

the same is true of masks.

just last year the WHO surveyed this and found that community masking does not work.

nothing has changed.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1310595825865756673?s=20

the "studies" trotted out this year are so awful as to beggar belief. they are either nonsensical lab bench presumption devoid of clinical or social outcome, or they are contrived cherry picks lacking controls.

the CDC used this one. it's risible.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1288190966621405186?s=20

CDC and gottlieb later pushed this study which is outright fraud.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1330941552055750657?s=20

and you can see piles of data from the swiss policy research institute here:

swprs.org/face-masks-evi…

there is no sound evidence that community masking has any effect. the evidence they work as "source control" is entirely speculative and made up.

the fact that they increase, not decrease post op infection in surgical theaters is pretty damning.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1286658667388063747?s=20

and now that it's becoming clear that asymptotic spread is vanishingly rare, we can really put the final nail in the NPI coffin.

this is the vector these interventions mean to head off.

but it was never a serious source of infection.

https://twitter.com/jhaskinscabrera/status/1341549892435664897?s=20

the simple fact is this: nothing we have done has made any meaningful difference

covid is seasonal and regional. when your season comes, it comes

NPI is not why california and peru and eastern europe did not get hit in the spring

it was just regional

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1336294267367649281?s=20

then your season comes and everyone moves together.

we've been mistaking baby oil for suncreeen in places where it was still night time.

then, noon came and it was revealed for what it really was.

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1329061542571216900?s=20

this means that all this moralizing about "you just want grandma to die" and the censorship of evidence counter to this "big lie" that lockdowns work has been at best a disastrous mistake and at worst, a cynical ploy to wreak havoc and cover past errors.

politicians are now doubling and trebling down on lockdowns and masks because to do otherwise is to admit that they bought us $10 trillion of sugar water as medicine and wrecked our lives and livelihoods for no sound reason.

they will never do that.

this is why they have shifted the debate to morality and censorship: to mask the fact that the science and the data calls them liars.

repeat "i'm on the side of science" enough and scare people endlessly and you can generate social belief.

but it's pure propaganda.

these mitigations do not work to stop covid or to reduce overall deaths.

this is the most expensive peace time policy debacle in human history and they all want to do it again.

say no. stand up.

this is not medicine, it's poison.

this does not save lives, it wrecks them.

it's easy to sell false hope to scared people. there are whole industries that prey on the desperation of parents with sick kids.

but sometimes, there is just not much you can do however much you want control and want to "do something".

this is one of those times.

and we need to accept that.

many times, the best way to "do something" is to do nothing.

"something" in this case has been a absolute disaster.

we panicked into unprecedented global self-harm.

it's time to stop. this is just making it worse

stay brave. stay free. stay safe.

apparently, the link i used for the asymptomatic spread study is down (crashed from so much traffic).

this is the article it cites.

https://twitter.com/jhaskinscabrera/status/1343968057119674369?s=20

also:

this is the methodology for policy stringency.

we can obviously debate weighting and values, but i checked it against the google mobility data i have used and it lined up quite well. the output looks reasonable to me.

wallethub.com/edu/states-cor…