el gato malo Profile picture
you like to pretend that you don't like bad cats, but deep down, you know you do. prolonged exposure likely to give you toxoplasmosis.
Deplorable Skymom Profile picture EricStoner Profile picture BlancheandKateDesign Profile picture DeadMessenger Profile picture Randy 🇺🇸 ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Profile picture 49 added to My Authors
26 Nov
adventures in presuming your conclusion: FT edition 11.0.

this graph is a disgrace. it presumes a 2 factor world of "protect economy" and "protect lives."

it ignores the overwhelming evidence that lockdowns do not work.

the whole concept is a false trade off and always was.
this has been painfully obvious since day one.

in fact, every major set of pre 2020 pandemic guidelines told you this:

lockdowns do not work and the costs are insanely high.

they literally said "do not even consider this."

and all the data so far from this year validates this claim.

lockdown intensity correlates to no reduction in deaths, cases, or hospitalization.

internet felines had shown this by april and may.

Read 13 tweets
23 Nov
this is not a study.

it's based on a model that estimated that X% of spread is from asymptomatic and then, surprise! got that as output.

this is literally saying "my model says that if i multiple X by 3, it triples!"

how is this passing for science to inform policy?
the CNN article he cites cites this "study" which is not a study at all.

it's a complex mathematical model that has long since fallen on its face.

this is, at best, extremely misleading.

it's a percolation model build on bad premises.

they assume that PCR+ is a "case" and that spread must be "asymptomatic" when this is just the recipe for a casedemic from over-testing.

they then assume their premise and claim that a remainder must be asympt spread.
Read 5 tweets
23 Nov
CDC claims that masks stopped the spread of covid in kansas by comparing masked and non-masked counties.

counterpoint: this was a cherry pick in terms of date and seasonality.

they ended the "study" aug 23.

then, covid season hit and the masks look to have made no difference.
how is it that every time someone has a "masks work" study, as soon as you look at how they did it, the methodology falls apart?

"team mask" has been relentless in pushing tragically, offensively bad science and top officials like gottlieb parrot it.

did he even read it?
because it's clearly a hilariously bad methodology and we've now had more data to check the hypothesis.

this study was released with the data that disproves it already available.

let's repeat that:

this study was released with the data that disproves it already available.
Read 6 tweets
23 Nov
@PiranhaCapital @real_MikeBarnes @GCA_Worldwide there is lots or hard evidence for biome specific immunity.

SARS-1 never spread to the US. neither did MERS.

this study of pre-covid 19 blood samples shows 10-15X the prevalence of sars-2 antibodies in africa vs US

@PiranhaCapital @real_MikeBarnes @GCA_Worldwide regional virus exposure is not that uncommon and similarity to sars-2 does not necessarily imply contagion like sars-2.

you could spend years generation localized cross resistance from endemic or source based viruses with low R.

then you get a breakout variant like sars-2
@PiranhaCapital @real_MikeBarnes @GCA_Worldwide the idea that lockdowns work looks pretty fraught. every standing set of pandemic guidelines from 2020 said they do not and no contrary evidence has emerged since.

asia has varies responses, all got same results.

no way this was just NPI.

Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
there seems to be a lot of grandstanding by the lockdown governors (who are almost invariably democrats as this issue has become distressingly partisan) but when one looks at red state vs blue state outcomes, it raises some serious questions.

(graph from david steinmier, PhD)
the blue states are faring noticeably less well than the red.

this has been true all along.

interestingly, red states are noticeably fatter which is a significant cov risk enhancer (and links to others like diabetes)

so, ceteris paribus, you'd expect more red state deaths.
the rejoinder to this has always been "but density!" but this has been a surprisingly poor predictor of death rates globally.

most of the data is highly uncorrelated with a few outliers driving outcomes. county level is a little better, but not great. globally, it's worse.
Read 11 tweets
22 Nov
how to lie with correlations: harley davidson limited edition.

there has been a lot of aggressive talk about how sturgis was a massive super spreader event

charts like this make it tempting to agree.

but be very careful about doing so: there's a big issue with this graph
it's from 5000 miles away and across an ocean.

as one can rapidly see "cases" measured here are in eastern europe, not the american midwest.

hard to imagine the harley folk having caused this no matter how hard they partied.
interestingly enough, south dakota and czechia look incredibly similar in terms of disease curve (deaths per million population) despite having totally different responses.

(the CZE data is real day of death, so it lags. the last 10-14 days are likely incomplete)
Read 8 tweets
21 Nov
anyone still presuming that a + PCR test is showing a covid case needs to read this v carefully:

even 25 cycles of amplification, 70% of "positives" are not "cases." virus cannot be cultured. it's dead.

by 35: 97% non-clinical.

the US runs at 40, 32X the amplification of 35.
a lot of people still seem to not understand what this means, so let's lay that out for a minute.

PCR tests look for RNA. there is too little in your swab. so they amplify it using a primer based heating and annealing process.

each cycle of this process doubles the material.
the US (and much of the world) is using a 40 Ct (cycle threshold). so, 40 doublings, 1 trillion X amplification.

this is absurdly high.

the way that we know this is by running this test, seeing the Ct to find the RNA, and then using the same sample to try to culture virus.
Read 19 tweets
21 Nov
several months back, i posited that the low covid deaths in pac rim could not possibly be from lockdowns or masks.

the differential was simply too large, the policies across the region too varied, and the results to internally similar.

it has to be pre-existing resistance.
i'd like to now revisit this hypothesis as quite a bit of new evidence has emerged and i think it has been increasingly supportive of this idea.

the gaps are simply too large and too geographically consistent.

i am becoming convinced that this is the only plausible explanation.
i'm going to use deaths as a metric because testing in asia has been very low in many places (1-10% of western per capita levels) and trying to adjust for that makes gibberish out of the data.
Read 29 tweets
20 Nov
what's most disappointing about the pics of lockdown gavin standing around maskless at french laundry w/ his pals is not that he'll doubtless find some epidemiologist to say "it's safe because proles can't get reservations anyhow"

it's that no one can even muster outrage anymore
stop and think about that.

does this even surprise you one, teensy eensy little bit?

complete moral bankruptcy and frank, forthright hypocrisy have become the base case for american politicians.

it's a noise so deafening we cannot even hear it anymore.
you only notice the rare cases when it stops for a minute.

how many stories of "pulled own mom out of NH then filled it with covid patients" or "imposed lockdowns but kept work going on their lake house" or "banned salons but went anyway" or have you heard?
Read 6 tweets
19 Nov
i see we have reached the "aztek priest" stage of the mask superstition

demand sacrifice!

if the rains do not come, demand a bigger sacrifice!

if the rains do not come, bigger still!

eventually, it will rain.

claim you caused it and demand a promotion
this is literally what epidemiology and public health has become.

just keep using bigger hammer theory and pretend that lockdowns and masks do anything at all to stop covid (they don't) and wait for the natural gompertz curve of community resistance/seasonality to bail you out
ignore the fact that lockdowns and masks are probably making it worse and that there is anything resembling a "cost" side to this cost-benefit equation and that it's massive to the point of "great leap forward" bad.

speak only in moral absolutes.
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
the real world, randomized controlled DANMASK study is out.

it shows no meaningful efficacy in masks and a p value of 0.38 which is means it's really just noise.

it's pretty much a nothingburger.

but there is one thing that interests me:

what they left out
it looks to me like they nerfed this study.

the protocol had a significant number of measures for adverse events:

bacteria, psychological, full healthcare, sick leave, infection in the household, other hospital diagnostics, etc.

NONE are included in the study.
on its own, that's a comment-worthy matter, but in the current climate of suppression and propaganda, it becomes far more suspicious especially in light of comments from the folks who ran the study.

"as soon as there is a journal brave enough?"

this report is bland pablum.
Read 9 tweets
18 Nov
croatia is open. no lockdowns, no curfews, no mask laws.


life there is normal. people are trying to claim this is causing a covid spike. it's not.

they look, gasp, just like every other country around them most of whom are locked down, masked, etc.

NPI's do nothing.
that graph gets a little cluttered, so here is croatia w/ just the 4 countries with which it actual shares a border.

serbia looks to be a bit behind temporally and bosnia esp bad, but the clustering of hungary and slovenia (locked down, masked) and croatia (open) is striking.
there is no argument here that there is meaningful NPI driven divergence or, really, any divergence at all.

if anything, it's the neighbors swamping croatia/making it worse.

here's the traffic jam of slovenians fleeing to croatia.

Read 11 tweets
17 Nov
it staggers me that we're still having this argument.

the truth is utterly simple and perfectly clear:

anyone who still speaks of "cases" as "proven" by a positive PCR test at 40Ct (or even 30) is either virologically illiterate or seeking to mislead you

these are not cases.
these PCR tests are NOT suited to purpose

they are a preposterously over sensitive assay. w/ a sensitive enough detector, i can find traces of bacon in your kitchen from breakfast 2 yrs ago

this does not mean you have bacon contamination

it means you're using a stupid measure
this is why NONE of the vaccine trials accept this definition of "covid case." all require symptomatic conformation as well.

mass testing is NOT the cure to an epidemic. it's the progenitor of a fake one.

we've made this mistake before

Read 10 tweets
16 Nov
the great reset is not new in any way, shape, or form. it's just a critical race theory rehash of the club of rome policies with a better powerpoint deck.

mussolini cold have easily written it if someone had taught him the word "stakeholder".

it's classic fascism.
wilson would have recognized and applauded it instantly.

you get government, media, and big business all aligned to shape the economic, social, and moral spheres of the society from the top down "for its own good."

(pro tip: this never works out for "we the people")
this sort of dictatorial control is the seductive trap that smart people fall for.

"i'm smart so everyone would be better off if they all just did what i said" is some seriously powerful kool-aid to get drunk on.

always has been.
Read 11 tweets
15 Nov
this study looks important:

it was controlled, prospective study. it's showing a stunning 71% mortality benefit in moderate to severe covid-19 cases even in the very old.

remdesivir shows no morality benefit.

baricitinib is a widely available RA drug available in pill form.
601 patients in the trial at university of pisa and albacete hospital.

83 treated with baricitinib. 83 controls established at same time using propensity score matching.

patients also received standard of care medication.
this led to dramatic differences in outcomes.

composite endpoint of death or mechanical ventilation was 29 in control group (34.9%) vs 14 in active arm (16.9%). 52% reduction. p<0.001.

effects were rapid and sustained.

curve separation was almost instant.
Read 14 tweets
15 Nov
on friday, governor wanda "lockdown" vazquez announced a tightening of puerto rico's restrictions and a whole set of "BEHAVE OR WE'LL MAKE IT WORSE!" threats.

among them:

• The National Guard has been activated to enforce EO compliance.

photo from VSJ promenade this morning:
let's hope this is just an unfortunate coincidence, but when you hear this kind of absolutist talk that puts systems over people, well, it's not hard to imagine the sound of jackboots

“We will not under any circumstance allow our health system to be placed at risk,” she said
“If during this new order that ends on December 11, we do not see a response from citizens and businesses in compliance, we would have to take more severe measures. I trust that those who are not complying will reconsider ” , Vázquez warned.

("cackled gleefully" is more like it)
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
this is literal nonsense and propaganda.

it's also very possibly medical malpractice.

the idea that a patient healthy enough to tell you this needs to be intubated is ridiculous.

this "vent early, vent hard" strategy was a massive killer of patients.

it's disastrously wrong.
i do not know who this nurse is, but she's a liar or a fool. probably both. the move from early, aggressive venting to proning and O2 has saved an enormous number of lives.

was just talking about this the other day.

but this is NOT new news.

certain internet felines (and a great many of the smart physicians) had figured this out back in april.

this is not a perfect measure, but it's close enough and bolstered by reports from many physicians to whom i've spoken.

Read 8 tweets
13 Nov
@elonmusk you cannot quite think about it that way.

you need to consider specificity of the test (what % of true neg will test pos) but that will not give you false pos without knowing prevalence.

98% specificity at 2% prevalence = 50% of positives are false.

@4%, only 1.3 are false
@elonmusk @4 this then runs into further complexity when you consider PCR artifacts.

we run the US as 40 Ct. anything over about 30 is non-clinical. so out test is 1000x too sensitive.

so false + rises (clinically) as there is a bigger tail of recovered.

@elonmusk @4 this makes for a total mess of cross variables.

add in the rapid tests which are antigen, not pathogen and can catch disease from even back i march, and the + rate really gets out of hand.

it's not a coincidence that %+ is spiking since that test rolled out.
Read 5 tweets
13 Nov
as part of the new exec order once more cranking down on puerto rico is this little gem:

not only must every restaurant post its capacity (at 30% of normal) but the poster must have the number to dial to report non-compliance.

fascism works best when you do the work for them.
this is the sort of "karen-oia" that gets used to divide a people and make them fearful of one another as well as the state

it's an old trick from authoritarian communist/fascist regimes

then, of course, the obligatory threats:

the beatings will continue until morale improves!
as ever, there is zero science to it, just nonsense.

we were at 50% open, then 55% (yes, really), now 30%

but hey, now we can't go to the beach anymore (again) except for "individual sports"

no fresh air for you! stay inside where covid spreads better

what. utter. muppets.
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
this is a foolish take and a misreporting of facts.

lockdowns and masks have no beneficial effect on spread.

but cases are a terrible metric because the tests are so over-sensitive (and testing level varies)

you pick up trace virus from months ago.
this means that in a place like sweden that had more spread before, you have a larger body of recovered, non-clinical patients to give you false positives.

this is why deaths are showing such a different story.

(and sweden counts more inclusively by far than US, EU)
"cases" as defined by just "a positive pcr test" are a nearly meaningless metric.

more on that here:

Read 8 tweets
13 Nov
cov exists in contagious form for ~5 days but in detectable form for ~77.

this is leading to massive false positives for clinical cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

this vastly distorts the data that is then used to drive policy.

we're on the gerbil wheel to hell.
this is what's driving the "casedemic". it's also what's driving much of the deaths data because so many are counting "death with" covid instead of "death from." sweden even goes so far as to count any death from any cause within 30 days of cov diagnosis as "covid death"
so you die from being an 85 year old with congestive heart failure but get counted as "covid" either because you had trace disease or because you picked it up opportunistically in the hospital.
Read 21 tweets