there seems to be a lot of grandstanding by the lockdown governors (who are almost invariably democrats as this issue has become distressingly partisan) but when one looks at red state vs blue state outcomes, it raises some serious questions.
(graph from david steinmier, PhD)
the blue states are faring noticeably less well than the red.
this has been true all along.
interestingly, red states are noticeably fatter which is a significant cov risk enhancer (and links to others like diabetes)
so, ceteris paribus, you'd expect more red state deaths.
the rejoinder to this has always been "but density!" but this has been a surprisingly poor predictor of death rates globally.
most of the data is highly uncorrelated with a few outliers driving outcomes. county level is a little better, but not great. globally, it's worse.
what's most disappointing about the pics of lockdown gavin standing around maskless at french laundry w/ his pals is not that he'll doubtless find some epidemiologist to say "it's safe because proles can't get reservations anyhow"
it's that no one can even muster outrage anymore
stop and think about that.
does this even surprise you one, teensy eensy little bit?
complete moral bankruptcy and frank, forthright hypocrisy have become the base case for american politicians.
it's a noise so deafening we cannot even hear it anymore.
you only notice the rare cases when it stops for a minute.
how many stories of "pulled own mom out of NH then filled it with covid patients" or "imposed lockdowns but kept work going on their lake house" or "banned salons but went anyway" or have you heard?
this is literally what epidemiology and public health has become.
just keep using bigger hammer theory and pretend that lockdowns and masks do anything at all to stop covid (they don't) and wait for the natural gompertz curve of community resistance/seasonality to bail you out
ignore the fact that lockdowns and masks are probably making it worse and that there is anything resembling a "cost" side to this cost-benefit equation and that it's massive to the point of "great leap forward" bad.
on friday, governor wanda "lockdown" vazquez announced a tightening of puerto rico's restrictions and a whole set of "BEHAVE OR WE'LL MAKE IT WORSE!" threats.
• The National Guard has been activated to enforce EO compliance.
photo from VSJ promenade this morning:
let's hope this is just an unfortunate coincidence, but when you hear this kind of absolutist talk that puts systems over people, well, it's not hard to imagine the sound of jackboots
“We will not under any circumstance allow our health system to be placed at risk,” she said
“If during this new order that ends on December 11, we do not see a response from citizens and businesses in compliance, we would have to take more severe measures. I trust that those who are not complying will reconsider ” , Vázquez warned.
this is what's driving the "casedemic". it's also what's driving much of the deaths data because so many are counting "death with" covid instead of "death from." sweden even goes so far as to count any death from any cause within 30 days of cov diagnosis as "covid death"
so you die from being an 85 year old with congestive heart failure but get counted as "covid" either because you had trace disease or because you picked it up opportunistically in the hospital.