Thread by @LawrenceGilder

THREAD: I am very nervous about what figures we will get tomorrow, there is a backlog of deaths from this Christmas bank holiday period and it is possible they will be added on tomorrow. The vast majority would be from Scotland and England if any are reported.

Scotland did not report deaths between the 25th and 28th, they are averaging around 30 a day so possibly 120 deaths yet to be accounted for. Northern Ireland and Wales have mostly caught up already as far as I know. England has a massive dump to report.

I could see England backlogging up to 300-400 deaths on top of the normal amount they report so on a bad day, that could break 1,000, otherwise potentially a high 700-800 day, that's IF the backlog is reported on a singular day. Cases probably will have a dramatic fall.

Testing was significantly down during the holiday period, from the 430,000 range to around an average of 330,000 the last 4 days, the 26th was the worst for the holiday (269,876 - NOT PEOPLE TESTED) and still yielded 36,172 positive cases as of today.

If we are averaging around 35,000-40,000 new cases per day (specimen) - then the 24th still has approximately 8,000 left to report, the 25th has over 24,000 left to report, the 28th will have a big bulk as well, probably 30,000+ but won't all be reported tomorrow.

More cases leads to more admissions, we're seeing a continuous rise in admissions on a daily basis, averaging over 2,000 a day in the UK. Patients in hospital peaked April 12th at 21,683 but have most likely already been surpassed, the most recent data is for the 22nd. (21,286)

It has to be noted that we are using roughly half as many mechanical ventilation beds than April, but that is still rising so keep an eye on it. Vaccination data has not been updated since the 20th, should be closer to 1,000,000 people vaccinated by now.

We are in a very fragile position right now and the one thing we cannot do is take our foot off the gas and relieve the restrictions. Vaccination needs to be increased 10-fold, easier said than done but it is really necessary. These restrictions are necessary, though difficult.