Disentangling Astra/Oxford vaccine data (it's a messy trial/ data presentation):

Efficacy after 1st dose overall: 52.69% (95%CI 40.52-62.37)
108 v 227 cases/10k cohorts

Subgroup analysis from 3 weeks after 1st dose until 2nd dose or 12 weeks: 73.00% (48.79-85.76)
12 v 44/8k

1/
Overall vaccine efficacy with 2 completed doses: 70.42% (95%CI 58.84-80.63)
30 v 101 cases/5.8k cohorts

0 hospitalised and 0 severe disease in full vaccine cohort

For 1 dose subgroup only 2 hospitalisations (day 1 and 10 post vaccine when no immunity conferred), 0 severe

2/
The trial is limited by the variability in administration of the second dose between 4 to 26 weeks.

Higher antibody titres were seen when delaying 2nd dose to 12 weeks

Only 5.9% of trial were over 65, and they tended to be in the early 2nd dose category

3/
No significance between half and full dosing of 1st dose survived closer scrutiny

Likely was artifactual from the half dosing mistake subgroup receiving 2nd dose much later

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More from @DevanSinha

31 Dec 20
The AZ/oxford vac shows high immunogenicity and efficacy when delayed to 12 weeks for 2nd dose. Ab titres highest for 12 weeks 👇

BUT the delay for Pfizer vac though potential large societal benefits is definitely a risk...

🧵 1/ Image
1. Pfizer efficacy was only trialled at 21 days for 2nd dose. (cf AZ/Ox 4-26 weeks)

2. This can be estimated at ~80-90% for 10-22 days after 1st dose

2/

But Ab tires don't increase until 2nd dose for Pfizer, especially in the older age cohort who are the priority vaccine targets. How much protection are we giving them?👇

The 86% is a pooled estimate of all ages with younger population dominating.

3/ Image
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